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Adaptive Bayesian credible sets in regression with a Gaussian process prior

机译:高斯过程先验后的自适应贝叶斯可信集

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We investigate two empirical Bayes methods and a hierarchical Bayes method for adapting the scale of a Gaussian process prior in a nonparametric regression model. We show that all methods lead to a posterior contraction rate that adapts to the smoothness of the true regression function. Furthermore, we show that the corresponding credible sets cover the true regression function whenever this function satisfies a certain extrapolation condition. This condition depends on the specific method, but is implied by a condition of self-similarity. The latter condition is shown to be satisfied with probability one under the prior distribution.
机译:我们研究了两种经验贝叶斯方法和一种分层贝叶斯方法,用于在非参数回归模型中适应高斯过程的规模。我们表明,所有方法均导致后收缩率与真实回归函数的平滑度相适应。此外,我们证明了只要该函数满足一定的外推条件,相应的可信集就可以覆盖真正的回归函数。此条件取决于特定的方法,但由自相似条件暗示。在先验分布下,后一个条件显示满足概率为1。

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