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Local linear smoothing for sparse high dimensional varying coefficient models

机译:稀疏高维变化系数模型的局部线性平滑

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Varying coefficient models are useful generalizations of parametric linear models. They allow for parameters that depend on a covariate or that develop in time. They have a wide range of applications in time series analysis and regression. In time series analysis they have turned out to be a powerful approach to infer on behavioral and structural changes over time. In this paper, we are concerned with high dimensional varying coefficient models including the time varying coefficient model. Most studies in high dimensional nonparametric models treat penalization of series estimators. On the other side, kernel smoothing is a well established, well understood and successful approach in nonparametric estimation, in particular in the time varying coefficient model. But not much has been done for kernel smoothing in high-dimensional models. In this paper we will close this gap and we develop a penalized kernel smoothing approach for sparse high-dimensional models. The proposed estimators make use of a novel penalization scheme working with kernel smoothing. We establish a general and systematic theoretical analysis in high dimensions. This complements recent alternative approaches that are based on basis approximations and that allow more direct arguments to carry over insights from high-dimensional linear models. Furthermore, we develop theory not only for regression with independent observations but also for local stationary time series in high-dimensional sparse varying coefficient models. The development of theory for local stationary processes in a high-dimensional setting creates technical challenges. We also address issues of numerical implementation and of data adaptive selection of tuning parameters for penalization.The finite sample performance of the proposed methods is studied by simulations and it is illustrated by an empirical analysis of NASDAQ composite index data.
机译:可变系数模型是参数线性模型的有用概括。它们允许依赖于协变量或随时间发展的参数。它们在时间序列分析和回归中具有广泛的应用。在时间序列分析中,它们已证明是推断行为和结构随时间变化的有效方法。在本文中,我们关注高维变化系数模型,包括时变系数模型。高维非参数模型中的大多数研究都是对级数估计量的惩罚。另一方面,在非参数估计中,尤其是在时变系数模型中,核平滑是一种公认​​的,易于理解且成功的方法。但是对于高维模型中的内核平滑,还没有做很多事情。在本文中,我们将弥合这一差距,并针对稀疏的高维模型开发一种惩罚性的核平滑方法。拟议的估算器利用了一种新颖的惩罚方案,与核平滑一起工作。我们在高维度上建立了一般而系统的理论分析。这是对基于基本近似的最新替代方法的补充,该替代方法允许更多直接参数继承高维线性模型的见解。此外,我们不仅开发了具有独立观测值的回归理论,还开发了高维稀疏变化系数模型中的局部平稳时间序列的理论。高维局部平稳过程理论的发展带来了技术挑战。我们还解决了数值实现和惩罚参数优化的数据自适应选择问题。通过仿真研究了所提出方法的有限样本性能,并通过对纳斯达克综合指数数据的实证分析进行了说明。

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