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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction
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The future of counter-terrorism in Europe. The need to be lost in the correct direction

机译：欧洲反恐的未来。需要在正确的方向迷路

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Abstract Terrorism is a clear context of rapid change, greater complexity and genuine uncertainties. A review of the events that have been going on in Europe shows a great evolution of the threat and the continuous emergence of new scenarios, like those represented by “lone actors” and “foreign fighters”. The complexity of the situation is due to the variety of quantitative and qualitative factors involved. Uncertainty is a key characteristic of our societies, generating fears that must be managed by governments and security institutions. Before defining new policies it is needed an analysis of the current situation of the phenomenon and its possible evolution. Critical thinking, loads of imagination, creative foresight and horizon scanning methodologies would be the pillars of the research. Policies are usually led by events and by social perception of risk. We propose a holistic approach that integrates the lessons learned from the past with modern foresight methodologies, intelligence analysis, evidence-based policing, and decision-making models. It is possible to manage our uncertainties in the present, a time and a matter in which perhaps we feel lost, but we must be sure that we are walking in a correct direction.
机译：摘要恐怖主义是快速变化，更大复杂性和真正不确定性的明确背景。对欧洲正在发生的事件的回顾表明，威胁的巨大演变和新情况的不断出现，例如以“单独演员”和“外国战斗人员”为代表的情况。情况的复杂性是由于涉及各种定量和定性因素。不确定性是我们社会的关键特征，产生了必须由政府和安全机构加以管理的恐惧。在定义新政策之前，需要分析该现象的现状及其可能的演变。批判性思维，想象力，有创造力的远见和视野开阔的方法论将是这项研究的支柱。政策通常由事件和社会对风险的感知所主导。我们提出一种整体方法，将过去的经验教训与现代的远见方法，情报分析，基于证据的警务和决策模型相结合。在当前，某个时间和一个可能让我们感到迷失的问题上，我们有可能应对不确定性，但我们必须确保我们朝着正确的方向前进。

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