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Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

机译：没有概率的场景开发—关注最重要的场景

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Abstract Within foresight management in general and scenario development in particular, the question is often asked: “For what scenario do I have to be prepared?” Since there are manifold approaches of scenario technique, the ways to answer this question with the help of scenario technique are also manifold. Scenario approaches using probabilities, for example, would recommend emphasizing the most probabilistic scenario. However, the consideration of probabilities, in our opinion, is not always useful. From a combinatorial point of view, any given scenario has an infinitesimal probability of being right, since there are so many possible variations (Gee et al. in Deep News Glob Bus Netw 2(4):199, 1991). Additionally, when regarding all possible developments that may be relevant for a scenario, each development has only an infinitesimal probability of coming true. Following these thoughts, the consideration of probabilities often has no additional benefit and, therefore, is not necessarily needed within scenario development. In this paper, the use of probabilities in scenarios will be discussed. On the one hand, this includes a discussion about scenarios in which the considerations do not make sense. On the other hand, the paper will also show an approach of considering additional information within the scenario creation process to select the most important scenario.
机译：摘要在一般的远见管理中，特别是在情景开发中，经常会问到一个问题：“我必须为哪种情景准备？”由于存在场景技术的多种方法，因此借助场景技术来回答此问题的方法也是多种多样的。例如，使用概率的方案方法建议强调最概率的方案。但是，在我们看来，考虑概率并不总是有用的。从组合的角度来看，任何给定的场景都有正确的无限可能性，因为存在许多可能的变化（Gee等人在Deep News Glob Bus Netw 2（4）：199，1991）。此外，在考虑与某个场景可能相关的所有可能的发展时，每个发展都只有无限的可能性实现。根据这些想法，概率的考虑通常没有额外的好处，因此在方案开发中不一定需要。在本文中，将讨论场景中概率的使用。一方面，这包括有关没有意义的方案的讨论。另一方面，本文还将展示一种在方案创建过程中考虑其他信息以选择最重要方案的方法。

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