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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway
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Technopolis, shared resources or controlled mobility? A net-based Delphi-study to explore visions of future urban daily mobility in Norway

机译：技术城，共享资源还是受控的流动性？基于网络的德尔菲研究，探讨了挪威未来城市日常出行的愿景

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Abstract It is widely recognized that transformation of urban areas are urgent to meet the demands for more efficient and environmental friendly transportation in the future. Although there are general agreements on the need for change, different ideas and visions for the future dominate across different groups of stakeholders and academics. In this paper we explore various views on the future of everyday travelling in urban regions, 30–40?years ahead, focussing in particular on four larger urban areas in Norway. Based on an innovative web-based Delphi-study, involving 280 national experts, various conceptions of future urban travelling is explored. An explorative factor analysis (principal component analysis) is applied to reveal three slightly different understandings of how the urban future may look like in 2050. These three visions - labelled as “Controlled mobility”, “Technopolis” and “Shared mobility”- suggests slightly different scenarios’ for the future of urban travelling.
机译：摘要人们普遍认识到，城市改造迫切需要满足未来对更高效，更环保的交通运输的需求。尽管就变革的需求达成了普遍协议，但在不同的利益相关者和学者群体中，对未来的看法和远见卓著。在本文中，我们探讨了对未来30-40年之内城市地区日常旅行的未来的各种看法，特别是针对挪威的四个较大的城市地区。基于创新的基于Web的Delphi研究，涉及280位国家专家，探讨了未来城市旅行的各种概念。运用探索性因素分析（主要成分分析）揭示了对2050年城市未来的三种略有不同的理解。这三种远见-分别标记为“可控交通”，“技术城”和“共享交通”-暗示着未来城市旅行的不同场景”。

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