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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >Integrating Delphi methodology to some classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: arctic maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight—a pilot study from Finland
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Integrating Delphi methodology to some classical concepts of the Boston consulting group framework: arctic maritime technology BCG Delphi foresight—a pilot study from Finland

机译：将Delphi方法论与波士顿咨询小组框架的一些经典概念相结合：北极海洋技术BCG Delphi预见性-来自芬兰的一项试点研究

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Abstract This article presents a way how the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) analysis tools can be combined with the Delphi methodology, and especially with the BCG portfolio matrix analysis. The Delphi Method is one of the most well-known futures research methods. It is an expert group interview process, which is based on two or more iterative rounds of expert interviews. Typical aspects of the Delphi methodology are anonymity and the conventional emphasis of consensus of experts with associated statistical evaluations. A conventional definition of the business portfolio is that it is the collection of businesses and products that make up the company. This article includes an experimental pilot study of the Finnish maritime cluster and its technological future options where integrative BCG Delphi methodology was used. Detailed pilot study results and learning are reported in this article. The study reveals a high potential of the BCG Delphi studies in the industrial and corporate foresight fields. Especially, futures of industrial product and service portfolios can be diagnosed and forecast by this novel methodological approach. The Delphi methodology is according to a metaphor “one of the best and constantly evolving computer’s operating system”, which can be linked to many other “programs”, among others to the conventional BCG tool package. To be strategically oriented from the BCG business perspective, the key issue strategically for European cities and regions is the strong local existence of Cash Cows (good and successful companies). Decision-makers in cities and regions should be interested in the strategy of optimum Cash Cow flows if they want to develop their cities and regions in the long-run. Thus, products with high market share and slow, but stable growth trajectory are Cash Cows.
机译：摘要本文介绍了一种将波士顿咨询集团（BCG）分析工具与Delphi方法（尤其是与BCG投资组合矩阵分析）相结合的方法。德尔菲法是最著名的期货研究方法之一。这是一个专家组访谈过程，该过程基于两次或更多次迭代的专家访谈。德尔菲方法论的典型方面是匿名性以及专家对相关统计评估的共识的传统强调。业务组合的常规定义是组成公司的业务和产品的集合。本文包括对芬兰海事集群及其使用了BCG Delphi综合方法的未来技术选择的实验性试点研究。本文报告了详细的试验研究结果和学习信息。该研究表明，BCG Delphi研究在工业和公司远景领域具有很高的潜力。特别是，可以通过这种新颖的方法论来诊断和预测工业产品和服务组合的未来。德尔菲方法论的隐喻是“最好的，不断发展的计算机操作系统之一”，它可以链接到许多其他“程序”，还可以链接到常规的BCG工具包。为了从BCG业务角度进行战略定位，对于欧洲城市和地区而言，战略上的关键问题是Cash Cows（良好而成功的公司）在当地的强大存在。如果城市和地区的决策者想要长期发展自己的城市和地区，他们应该对最佳摇钱树流量战略感兴趣。因此，具有高市场份额和缓慢但稳定的增长轨迹的产品就是摇钱树。

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