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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges
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Transport demand evolution in Europe – factors of change, scenarios and challenges

机译：欧洲运输需求的演变–变化，场景和挑战的因素

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Abstract In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people’s preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.
机译：摘要在交通运输行业，变革伴随着惯性，并且从长远角度进行投资，决策者需要考虑长期的未来状况。本文介绍的工作是一种情景分析，重点是到2050年运输需求的演变，旨在确定欧洲工业和政策参与者面临的相关挑战。它跟进了从欧洲的角度研究运输的未来的其他最近尝试的工作，整合了这些研究的结果，更新了新的趋势，并应用了依赖专家咨询的特定情景分析方法。场景的多样性创造了未来运输系统的各个方面，在运输量，旅行动机，普遍的运输和物流空间规模，人们对不同运输属性的偏好，国家与国家之间的相关性等问题上产生了截然不同的结果。运输生产，竞争水平或环境与资源稀缺的相对重要性对制定创新和法规议程的私人倡议。除了在这项工作中发现的后续挑战和机遇之外，所开发的场景可能是具有不同背景的个体参与者建立自己的特定未来的有用基础，支持他们确定未来的战略。

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