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首页> 外文期刊>European Journal of Futures Research >Functional technology foresight. A novel methodology to identify emerging technologies
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Functional technology foresight. A novel methodology to identify emerging technologies

机译：功能技术预见。识别新兴技术的新颖方法

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The speed and complexity of the technology evolution faced by modern societies need new approaches to the analysis and understanding of the world. Indeed, an exclusive focus on technological goals can miss to recognize all the stakeholders of a technology and address real user needs; moreover, on the one hand low signals are becoming more and more important in fast evolving markets, on the other hand the excess of hype, fashions, or vested interests sometimes deeply alter indicators. However, the so called Big Data promise to be a huge low cost set of valuable information, available and affordable to all (SMEs included). But, analyzing them is not trivial especially if we deal with academic papers and patents. To tackle these issues, the present paper proposes to apply a powerful methodological tool called Functional Analysis to the Technology Foresight process. Actually the rigorous study of the functions, that an artefact should perform to satisfy the user needs, provides a universal and thus unifying point of view, which is able to correlate the user perspective on the product with its technical features. Functional reasoning has been applied to (i) detect possible patterns of development, spotting missing elements and highlighting strengths as well as potential sources of failure; (ii) to enhance traditional bibliometric tools such as the analysis of S-curves and (iii), integrated with a natural language processing analysis toolchain, tailored for patent documents, to identify emerging technologies. The paper describes the functional approach to technology foresight activity, presents how to integrate it with text mining algorithms and experts’ domain knowledge, and finally discusses its benefits in the context of Technology Foresight also from an economic point of view, showing that oresight is affordable also for Small and Medium Enterprises.
机译：现代社会所面临的技术发展的速度和复杂性需要新的方法来分析和理解世界。实际上，仅关注技术目标可能会错过承认技术的所有利益相关者并满足实际用户需求的机会;此外，一方面，低信号在快速发展的市场中变得越来越重要，另一方面，过度的炒作，时尚或既得利益有时会严重改变指标。但是，所谓的大数据有望成为一套巨大的低成本有价值的信息，可供所有人（包括中小型企业）使用和负担得起。但是，对它们进行分析并不是一件容易的事，特别是如果我们处理学术论文和专利的话。为了解决这些问题，本文建议将一种功能强大的方法学工具（称为功能分析）应用于技术预见过程。实际上，人工制品应满足用户需求而对功能进行的严格研究，提供了一种通用的统一观点，从而能够将用户对产品的看法与其技术特征相关联。功能推理已被用于（i）发现可能的发展模式，发现缺失的要素并突出优势和潜在的失败根源; （ii）增强诸如S曲线分析之类的传统文献计量工具，以及（iii）与针对专利文件量身定制的自然语言处理分析工具链相集成，以识别新兴技术。本文介绍了技术预见活动的功能方法，介绍了如何将其与文本挖掘算法和专家的领域知识相集成，最后还从经济的角度讨论了在技术预见的背景下它的好处，表明矿石预见是可负担的也适用于中小企业。

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