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A hybrid fuzzy stochastic analytical hierarchy process (FSAHP) approach for evaluating ballast water treatment technologies

机译：评估压载水处理技术的混合模糊随机层次分析法（FSAHP）

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Background Environmental decisions can be complex because of the inherent trade-offs among environmental, social, ecological, and economic factors. This paper presents a novel hybrid fuzzy stochastic analytical hierarchy process (FSAHP) approach to aid decision making by incorporating fuzzy and stochastic uncertainty into the traditional analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study related to ballast water management is used to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach. Nine experts from government ministries and academic institutions are invited to evaluate five treatment technologies (i.e., heat treatment, ultraviolet, ozone, ultrasound, and biocide) based on a number of criteria such as efficacy, capital cost, and human risk. Results The experts’ preferences over the set of alternatives are represented as linguistic terms instead of numerical values. The beta-PERT distribution is adopted to approximate the probability density functions of the values of their inputs. Statistical analysis indicates that ultraviolet has the highest score (0.22–0.24) in most replications and its overlap with the second-best alternative is statistically negligible. Ozone, ultrasound, and heat treatment are mostly found as the second-, third-, and fourth-best alternatives with considerable overlaps that may be reduced if more experts are involved. Conclusions As compared with the traditional AHP, the proposed FSAHP approach can not only take into account linguistic information but also capture the uncertainty associated with insufficient information and biased opinions in group decision-making problems.
机译：背景技术由于环境，社会，生态和经济因素之间的内在取舍，环境决策可能很复杂。本文提出了一种新颖的混合模糊随机分析层次过程（FSAHP）方法，通过将模糊和随机不确定性纳入传统的分析层次过程（AHP）中来辅助决策。通过与压载水管理有关的案例研究，证明了该方法的适用性。邀请政府各部委和学术机构的9名专家根据多种标准（例如功效，资本成本和人身风险）评估五种治疗技术（即热处理，紫外线，臭氧，超声波和杀菌剂）。结果专家对备选方案的偏好以语言术语而不是数值表示。采用β-PERT分布来近似其输入值的概率密度函数。统计分析表明，紫外线在大多数复制品中得分最高（0.22-0.24），与第二好的替代品的重叠在统计上可忽略不计。臭氧，超声波和热处理通常被认为是第二，第三和第四好的替代品，而且有很多重叠之处，如果有更多专家参与，它们可能会减少。结论与传统的层次分析法相比，提出的FSAHP方法不仅可以考虑语言信息，而且可以捕获与信息不足有关的不确定性和群体决策问题中的偏见。

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