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Evaluating Biodiversity Metric Response to Forecasted Land Use Change in the Northern Rio Grande Basin

机译：评价北里奥格兰德盆地生物多样性对预测的土地利用变化的响应

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The effects of future land use change on arid and semi-arid watersheds in the American Southwest have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the US Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and extracted to fit the Northern Rio Grande River Basin, New Mexico relative to projections of housing density for the period from 2000 through 2100. Habitat models developed from the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project were invoked to examine changes in wildlife habitat and biodiversity metrics using five ICLUS scenarios. The scenarios represent a US Census base-case and four modifications that were consistent with the different assumptions underlying the A1, A2, B1, and B2 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change global greenhouse gas emission storylines. Habitat models for terrestrial vertebrate species were used to derive metrics reflecting ecosystem services or biodiversity aspects valued by humans that could be quantified and mapped. Example metrics included total terrestrial vertebrate species richness, bird species richness, threatened and endangered species, and harvestable species (e.g., waterfowl, big game). Overall, the defined scenarios indicated that the housing density and extent of developed lands will increase throughout the century with a resultant decrease in area for all species richness categories. The A2 Scenario, in general, showed greatest effect on area by species richness category. The integration of the land use scenarios with biodiversity metrics derived from deductive habitat models may prove to be an important tool for decision makers involved in impact assessments and adaptive planning processes.
机译：未来土地利用变化对美国西南部干旱和半干旱流域的影响具有重要的管理意义。从美国环境保护局综合气候和土地利用情景（lCLUS）项目中获得了已开发土地的无缝，全国规模的土地利用变化情景，并根据住房预测将其提取以适合新墨西哥州北里奥格兰德河盆地2000年至2100年期间的密度。利用西南地区差距分析项目开发的栖息地模型，使用5种ICLUS情景研究了野生动植物栖息地和生物多样性指标的变化。这些方案代表了美国人口普查的基本情况和四项修改，这些修改与A1，A2，B1和B2政府间气候变化专门委员会全球温室气体排放故事线所依据的不同假设相一致。陆生脊椎动物物种的栖息地模型被用来得出反映人类所重视的生态系统服务或生物多样性方面的指标，这些指标可以量化和制图。度量标准示例包括陆地脊椎动物总物种丰富度，鸟类物种丰富度，受威胁和濒危物种以及可收获物种（例如水禽，大型猎物）。总体而言，确定的方案表明，整个世纪内住房密度和发达土地的面积将增加，因此所有物种丰富度类别的面积都会减少。一般而言，按物种丰富度类别，A2情景对面积的影响最大。对于参与影响评估和适应性规划过程的决策者而言，将土地利用情景与从演绎生境模型得出的生物多样性度量标准进行整合可能是一个重要工具。

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