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Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

机译：青尼罗河上游盆地土地利用变化模型

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Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment) modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009) were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%). Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water). It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025). Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.
机译：土地利用和土地覆盖的变化正在推动生态系统和环境过程发生不同规模的空前变化。这项研究旨在通过统计分析，现场调查和遥感相结合的方法，确定阿贝盆地的吉德布流域的潜在土地利用驱动因素。为此，使用SITE（陆地环境模拟）建模框架对土地利用变化模型进行了校准和评估。 SITE是基于元胞自动机的多准则决策分析框架，用于基于社会经济和环境因素来模拟土地利用转化。使用参考的Landsat地图（同意率为84％）对过去的土地利用轨迹（1986-2009年）进行了评估。结果表明，研究区域的主要土地利用变化动因是人口，坡度，牲畜以及与各种基础设施（道路，市场和水）的距离。还发现，农民似乎越来越喜欢通过种植农田来替代桉树等人工林，这可能主要是由于农作物产量下降，土壤肥力和气候变化所致。在一切照旧的情况下（2009-2025年），还预测了土地利用变化的潜在未来轨迹。结果表明，集水区的农业用地将从2009年的69.5％增长到2025年的77.5％，尽管与1986年至2009年相比，下降的速度有所下降。人工林的增长速度也将大大提高，主要是在以自然植被，农业用地和草原为代价。这项研究为土地利用计划者和政策制定者提供了重要信息，以便在这一高地流域进行更有效和主动的管理。

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