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Coastal Flood Assessment due to Sea Level Rise and Extreme Storm Events: A Case Study of the Atlantic Coast of Portugal’s Mainland

机译:由于海平面上升和极端风暴事件而进行的沿海洪水评估:以葡萄牙大陆的大西洋海岸为例

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Portugal’s mainland has hundreds of thousands of people living in the Atlantic coastal zone, with numerous high economic value activities and a high number of infrastructures that must be adapted and protected from natural coastal hazards, namely, extreme storms and sea level rise (SLR). In the context of climate change adaptation strategies, a reliable and accurate assessment of the physical vulnerability to SLR is crucial. This study is a contribution to the implementation of flooding standards imposed by the European Directive 2007/60/EC, which requires each member state to assess the risk associated to SLR and floods caused by extreme events. Therefore, coastal hazard on the Atlantic Coast of Portugal’s mainland was evaluated for 2025, 2050, and 2100 over the whole extension due to SLR, with different sea level scenarios for different extreme event return periods. A coastal probabilistic flooding map was produced based on the developed probabilistic cartography methodology using geographic information system (GIS) technology. The Extreme Flood Hazard Index (EFHI) was determined on probabilistic flood bases using five probability intervals of 20% amplitude. For a given SLR scenario, the EFHI is expressed, on the probabilistic flooding maps for an extreme tidal maximum level, by five hazard classes ranging from 1 (Very Low) to 5 (Extreme).
机译:葡萄牙的大陆有数十万人居住在大西洋沿岸地区,开展了许多具有高经济价值的活动,并且必须对大量基础设施进行调整和保护,以免遭受自然风暴,例如极端风暴和海平面上升(SLR)的危害。在适应气候变化战略的背景下,可靠和准确地评估单反相机的物理脆弱性至关重要。这项研究有助于实施欧洲指令2007/60 / EC所规定的洪水标准,该标准要求每个成员国评估与SLR和极端事件导致的洪水相关的风险。因此,在整个延伸范围内,由于单反,对葡萄牙大陆沿海的海岸危险进行了评估,评估时间分别为2025年,2050年和2100年,在不同的极端事件返回期间,海平面的情况也不同。基于已开发的概率制图方法,使用地理信息系统(GIS)技术绘制了沿海概率洪水地图。极端洪水灾害指数(EFHI)是根据概率洪水基准使用幅度为20%的五个概率区间确定的。对于给定的SLR场景,EFHI在概率洪泛图上针对最大潮汐最大水平表示为5种危险等级,范围从1(极低)到5(极度)。

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