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Modelling of a Large Landslide Problem under Water Level Fluctuation—Model Calibration and Verification

机译:水位波动下的大型滑坡问题建模—模型标定与验证

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In past centuries, reservoir landslides have been always a threat that brought a big loss in lives and properties. The phenomena that have decisive influence on the landslide instability are quite complex and the importance of each of them for the stability of a particular landslide differs. Therefore, it is extremely important to distinguish between the effects that different phenomena have and to identify those that dominate the behaviour of the studied landslide. The aim of the present study is to investigate the behaviour under the river level fluctuation of a large landslide in China, namely the Huangtupo landslide. A 2D numerical model of a selected part of the Huangtupo landslide is created and a series of fully coupled hydro-mechanical simulations have been conducted to investigate the landslide behaviour under different influencing factors (e.g., mechanical incidents, water head, soil water permeability, etc.). Furthermore, both local and global sensitivity analyses are performed to assess the importance of these influencing factors and to select the most influential model parameters. Thereafter, back analysis is employed to calibrate the model against real field data. Finally, the capability of the calibrated model is evaluated and the results show that it can simulate appropriately the long-term behaviour of the landslide after the river level reaches its maximal level.
机译:在过去的几个世纪中,水库滑坡一直是威胁,造成了生命和财产的巨大损失。对滑坡失稳具有决定性影响的现象非常复杂,并且每种现象对于特定滑坡的稳定性的重要性各不相同。因此,区分不同现象产生的影响并确定支配所研究滑坡行为的影响极为重要。本研究的目的是研究中国大型滑坡,即黄土坡滑坡在水位波动下的行为。建立了黄土坡滑坡选定部分的二维数值模型,并进行了一系列完全耦合的水力模拟,以研究在不同影响因素(例如机械事件,水头,土壤水渗透率等)下的滑坡行为。 )。此外,还进行了局部和全局敏感性分析,以评估这些影响因素的重要性并选择最具影响力的模型参数。此后,采用反分析来针对实际数据校准模型。最后,对标定模型的能力进行了评估,结果表明,该模型可以在河流水位达到最大水位后适当地模拟滑坡的长期行为。

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