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Development of a Distributed Hydrologic Model for a Region with Fragipan Soils to Study Impacts of Climate on Soil Moisture: A Case Study on the Obion River Watershed in West Tennessee

机译:研究Fragipan土壤区域的分布式水文模型,研究气候对土壤水分的影响:以田纳西州西部的奥比恩河流域为例

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Previous land surface modeling efforts to predict and understand water budgets in the U.S. Southeast for soil water management have struggled to characterize parts of the region due to an extensive presence of fragipan soils for which current calibration approaches are not adept at handling. This study presents a physically based approach for calibrating fragipan-dominated regions based on the “effective” soil moisture capacity concept, which accounts for the dynamic perched saturation zone effects created by the low hydraulic capacities of the fragipan layers. The approach is applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity model to develop a hydrologic model of the Obion River Watershed (ORW), TN, which has extensive fragipan coverage. Model calibration was performed using observed streamflow data, as well as evapotranspiration and soil moisture data, to ensure correct partitioning of surface and subsurface fluxes. Estimated Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for the various sub-drainage areas within ORW were all greater than 0.65, indicating good model performance. The model results suggest that ORW has a high responsivity and high resilience. Despite forecasted temperature increases, the simulation results suggest that water budget trends in the ORW are unlikely to change significantly in the near future up to 2050 due to sufficient precipitation amounts.
机译:由于存在广泛的易碎裂土壤,目前的校准方法不善于处理,因此先前用于预测和了解美国东南部用于土壤水管理的水预算的地表建模工作一直难以描述该地区的部分地区。这项研究提出了一种基于物理的方法,该方法基于“有效”土壤水分容量概念来标定fragipan主导地区,该方法解释了由fragipan层的低水力造成的动态栖息饱和带效应。将该方法应用于可变渗透能力模型,以开发田纳西州奥比恩河流域(ORW)的水文模型,该模型具有广泛的fragipan覆盖范围。使用观察到的水流数据以及蒸散和土壤水分数据进行模型校准,以确保正确分配表层和地下通量。 ORW内各个子流域的估计Nash-Sutcliffe系数均大于0.65,表明模型性能良好。模型结果表明,ORW具有高响应性和高弹性。尽管预测温度会升高,但模拟结果表明,由于降水量充足,ORW中的水预算趋势在不久的将来直至2050年都不太可能发生显着变化。

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