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Examples of Application of GA SAKe for Predicting the Occurrence of Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Southern Italy

机译：GA SAKe在预测意大利南部降雨诱发的滑坡发生中的应用示例

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GA SAKe is an empirical-hydrological model aimed at forecasting the time of occurrence of landslides. Activations can be predicted of either single landslides or sets of slope movements of the same type in a homogeneous environment. The model requires a rainfall series and a set of dates of landslide activation as input data. Calibration is performed through genetic algorithms, and allows for determining a family of optimal kernels to weight antecedent rainfall properly. As output, the mobility function highlights critical conditions of slope stability. Based on suitable calibration and validation samples of activation dates, the model represents a useful tool to be integrated in early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation purposes. In the present paper, examples of application to three rock slides in Calabria and to cases of soil slips in Campania are discussed. Calibration and validation are discussed, based on independent datasets. Obtained results are either excellent for two of the Calabrian rock slides or just promising for the remaining case studies. The best performances of the model take advantage of an accurate knowledge of the activation history of the landslides, and a proper hydrological characterization of the sites. For such cases, GA SAKe could be usefully employed within early-warning systems for geo-hydrological risk mitigation and Civil Protection purposes. Finally, a new release of the model is presently under test: its innovative features are briefly presented.
机译：GA SAKe是一种经验水文模型，旨在预测滑坡的发生时间。在均质的环境中，可以预测单个滑坡的激活或相同类型的斜坡运动的集合。该模型需要降雨序列和一组滑坡激活日期作为输入数据。通过遗传算法进行校准，并可以确定一系列最佳谷粒以适当地加权先前的降雨。作为输出，迁移率函数突出了边坡稳定性的关键条件。基于激活日期的适当校准和验证样本，该模型代表了一种有用的工具，可以将其集成到预警系统中，以降低地理水文学风险。在本文中，讨论了在卡拉布里亚（Calabria）的三个岩石滑坡和坎帕尼亚（Campania）的土壤滑坡案例中的应用实例。基于独立的数据集，讨论了校准和验证。对于两个卡拉布里亚岩质滑坡，获得的结果都非常好，或者对于其余的案例研究而言，它们都只是很有希望的。该模型的最佳性能利用了对滑坡激活历史的准确了解以及对站点的适当水文特性的了解。对于此类情况，GA SAKe可有效地用于预警系统中，以减轻地理水文学风险和保护民防。最后，目前正在测试该模型的新版本：简要介绍其创新功能。

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