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首页> 外文期刊>Geosciences >Regional Scale Sea Cliff Hazard Assessment at Sintra and Cascais Counties, Western Coast of Portugal
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Regional Scale Sea Cliff Hazard Assessment at Sintra and Cascais Counties, Western Coast of Portugal

机译：葡萄牙西海岸辛特拉和卡斯凯什县的地区规模海崖危害评估

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摘要

Mass movements of different types and sizes are the main processes of sea cliff evolution, being a considerable natural hazard, the assessment of which is a relevant issue in terms of human loss prevention and land use regulations. To predict the occurrence of future failures affecting the cliff top in slow retreating cliffs, a study was made using the logistic regression statistical method, a set of predisposing factors mainly related with geology (lithology, structure, faults), geomorphology (maximum, mean and standard variation of slope angle, height, aspect, curvatures, toe protection) and near offshore mean annual wave power, which were correlated with an aerial photo interpretation based inventory of cliff failures occurred in a 63 years period (1947–2010). The susceptibility model was validated against the inventory data using standard Receiver Operator Curves, which provided area under the curve (AUC) values higher than 0.8. In spite of the room for improvement of cliff failure inventories and predisposing factors to be used in these types of studies, namely those related to the rock mass strength and wave power nearshore, the results obtained indicate that the proposed approach is an effective contribution for objective and quantitative hazard assessment.
机译：不同类型和大小的群众运动是海崖演变的主要过程，是一种相当大的自然灾害，就防止人类损失和土地利用法规而言，评估是一个相关问题。为了预测在缓慢退缩的悬崖中影响悬崖顶部的未来破坏的发生，我们使用逻辑回归统计方法进行了研究，该方法是一组主要与地质（岩性，结构，断层），地貌（最大，均值和坡度角，高度，纵横比，曲率，脚趾防护的标准变化）和近海平均年波浪功率，这与在63年内（1947-2010年）发生的基于岩溶断层的航空影像解释清单有关。使用标准的接收方操作员曲线针对库存数据验证了敏感性模型，该曲线提供的曲线下面积（AUC）值大于0.8。尽管有改善悬崖破坏清单的空间，并且在这些类型的研究中使用了诱因，即与近岸的岩体强度和波浪能有关的因素，但获得的结果表明，所提出的方法是对目标的有效贡献。和定量危害评估。

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