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Cointegration between macroeconomic factors and the exchange rate USD/CNY

机译:宏观经济因素与美元/人民币汇率之间的协整

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This research paper investigates the effect of macroeconomic variables on the exchange rate USD/CYN using yearly time series data for China economy from 1980 to 2017. ARDL bounds test approach for cointegration is applied to test the long-run relation between the dependent and the independent variables. The results of long-run ARDL indicate that gross domestic product growth and trade openness have a positive effect on the exchange rate USD/CNY while interest and inflation rates have a negative effect on the exchange rate. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the policymakers of the Chinese government should implement vital monetary and fiscal policies to determine the less volatile and productive exchange rate for China to manage sustainable economic growth for a long time with its trading partners.
机译:本文使用1980年至2017年中国经济的年度时间序列数据,研究了宏观经济变量对美元兑CYN汇率的影响。采用ARDL边界协整检验方法来检验依赖者和独立者之间的长期关系。变量。长期ARDL的结果表明,国内生产总值的增长和贸易开放度对美元/人民币汇率产生积极影响,而利率和通货膨胀率则对汇率产生负面影响。根据这项研究的结果,建议中国政府的政策制定者应实施重要的货币和财政政策,以确定波动较小的生产性汇率,使中国与贸易伙伴长期管理可持续的经济增长。

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