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首页> 外文期刊>Fire Ecology >Predicting Post-Fire Tree Mortality for 12 Western US Conifers Using the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)
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Predicting Post-Fire Tree Mortality for 12 Western US Conifers Using the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

机译：使用一阶火效应模型（FOFEM）预测美国西部12个针叶树的火后树木死亡率

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Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species—white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. & Glend.] Lindl. ex Hildebr.), red fir (Abies magnifica A. Murray bis), subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa [Hook.] Nutt.), incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens [Torr.] Florin), western larch (Larix occidentalis Nutt.), lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon var. latifolia Engelm. ex S. Watson), whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.), ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Lawson & C. Lawson var. scopulorum Engelm and var. ponderosa C. Lawson), Jeffrey pine (Pinus jeffreyi Balf.), sugar pine (Pinus lambertiana Douglas), Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm.), and Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb.] Franco var. glauca [Beissn.] Franco)—by pooling data collected from multiple fire-injury studies. Two sets of models were created: one for use in pre-fire planning in which only crown injury and tree diameter (DBH) were potential variables, and a second, optimal model for use in post-fire planning that used all significant variables. Predictive accuracy of all models was compared to the accuracy of the general, non-species specific mortality model used in the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) prior to version 5.7. The new species-specific models improved prediction of fire-caused tree mortality by 0 % to 48 %. Model accuracy increased the most for red fir, incense cedar, western larch, and whitebark pine, and increased the least for Engelmann spruce. The models in the post-fire option provided higher accuracy compared to the pre-fire models, but also required additional inputs. These new models were added to FOFEM beginning with version 5.7, and the options in the FOFEM Mortality Module were expanded. We describe the new options in FOFEM and how to use the software to predict tree mortality for pre-fire and post-fire planning, as well as modeling limitations and assumptions. The additions to FOFEM offer improved accuracy in predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 Western conifer species and allow direct inputs of fire injury to increase software applicability to prescribed fire and post-fire forest management.
机译：准确预测由火引起的树木死亡率对于做出合理的土地管理决策（例如制定燃烧处方和火灾后管理指南）至关重要。为了提高预测火后树木死亡率的努力，我们针对12种西方针叶树种开发了3年的火后死亡率模型，包括白杉（Abies concolor [Gord。＆Glend。] Lindl。ex Hildebr。），红杉（Abies）。 magnifica A. Murray bis），亚高山冷杉（Abies lasiocarpa [Hook。] Nutt。），香柏木（Calocedrus decurrens [Torr。] Florin），西部落叶松（Larix occidentalis Nutt。），黑松（Pinus contorta Douglas ex Loudon var） 。latifolia Engelm。ex S. Watson），白树松（Pinus albicaulis Engelm。），黄松（Pinus tankerosa Lawson和C. Lawson var scopulorum Engelm和var。tankerosa C. Lawson），Jeffrey pine（Pinus jeffreyi Balf。） ，糖松（Pinus lambertiana Douglas），云杉（Engelmann云杉（Picea engelmannii Parry ex Engelm。））和花旗松（Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirb。] Franco var。glauca [Beissn。Franco））-通过汇总从多个火源收集的数据伤害研究。创建了两套模型：一套用于火灾前的计划，其中只有树冠伤害和树木直径（DBH）是潜在变量，另一套用于火后计划的最佳模型，它使用了所有重要变量。将所有模型的预测准确性与版本5.7之前的一阶火灾效应模型（FOFEM）中使用的一般非物种特定死亡率模型的准确性进行了比较。新的特定物种模型将火树死亡率的预测提高了0％至48％。红杉，香柏木，西部落叶松和白皮松的模型精度提高最多，而英格曼云杉的模型精度提高最少。与开火前的模型相比，开火后选项中的模型提供了更高的准确性，但还需要其他输入。从5.7版开始，这些新模型已添加到FOFEM中，并且扩展了FOFEM Mortality Module中的选项。我们介绍了FOFEM中的新选项，以及如何使用该软件预测火灾前和火灾后计划的树木死亡率，以及建模限制和假设。 FOFEM的新增功能提高了预测12种西方针叶树种的火后树死亡率的准确性，并允许直接输入火害，从而提高了软件对规定的火和火后森林管理的适用性。

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