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Performance evaluation of series and parallel strategies for financial time series forecasting

机译:财务时间序列预测的串联和并行策略的绩效评估

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Abstract Background Improving financial time series forecasting is one of the most challenging and vital issues facing numerous financial analysts and decision makers. Given its direct impact on related decisions, various attempts have been made to achieve more accurate and reliable forecasting results, of which the combining of individual models remains a widely applied approach. In general, individual models are combined under two main strategies: series and parallel. While it has been proven that these strategies can improve overall forecasting accuracy, the literature on time series forecasting remains vague on the choice of an appropriate strategy to generate a more accurate hybrid model. Methods Therefore, this study’s key aim is to evaluate the performance of series and parallel strategies to determine a more accurate one. Results Accordingly, the predictive capabilities of five hybrid models are constructed on the basis of series and parallel strategies compared with each other and with their base models to forecast stock price. To do so, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) are used to construct two series hybrid models, ARIMA-MLP and MLP-ARIMA, and three parallel hybrid models, simple average, linear regression, and genetic algorithm models. Conclusion The empirical forecasting results for two benchmark datasets, that is, the closing of the Shenzhen Integrated Index (SZII) and that of Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500), indicate that although all hybrid models perform better than at least one of their individual components, the series combination strategy produces more accurate hybrid models for financial time series forecasting.
机译:摘要背景改进金融时间序列预测是众多金融分析师和决策者面临的最具挑战性和至关重要的问题之一。鉴于其直接影响相关决策,已进行了各种尝试来获得更准确和可靠的预测结果,其中结合各个模型仍然是一种广泛应用的方法。通常,单个模型在两种主要策略下组合:串联和并联。尽管已经证明这些策略可以提高整体预测的准确性,但是关于时间序列预测的文献对于选择合适的策略以生成更准确的混合模型仍然含糊不清。方法因此,本研究的主要目的是评估串联和并联策略的性能,以确定更准确的方法。结果因此,在相互比较的基础上,基于串联和并行策略并与它们的基础模型相比较,构建了五个混合模型的预测能力以预测股票价格。为此,自回归综合移动平均值(ARIMA)和多层感知器(MLP)用于构建两个系列的混合模型ARIMA-MLP和MLP-ARIMA,以及三个并行的混合模型,简单平均,线性回归和遗传算法模型。结论两个基准数据集的经验预测结果,即深圳综合指数(SZII)和标准普尔500(S&P 500)的收盘价,表明尽管所有混合模型的表现都优于其至少一个个体组件组合策略可以为金融时间序列预测生成更准确的混合模型。

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