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Bubbles, gullibility, and other challenges for economics, psychology, sociology, and information sciences

机译：泡沫，易碎性以及经济学，心理学，社会学和信息科学的其他挑战

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Gullibility is the principal cause of bubbles. Investors and the general public get snared by a "beautiful illusion" and throw caution to the wind. Attempts to identify and control bubbles are complicated by the fact that the authorities who might naturally be expected to take action have often (especially in recent years) been among the most gullible, and were cheerleaders for the exuberant behavior. Hence what is needed is an objective measure of gullibility.This paper argues that it should be possible to develop such a measure. Examples demonstrate, contrary to the efficient market dogma, that in some manias, even top business and technology leaders fall prey to collective hallucinations and become irrational in objective terms. During the Internet bubble, for example large classes of them first became unable to comprehend compound interest, and then lost even the ability to do simple arithmetic, to the point of not being able to distinguish 2 from 10. This phenomenon, together with advances in analysis of social networks and related areas, points to possible ways to develop objective and quantitative tools for measuring gullibility and other aspects of human behavior implicated in bubbles. It cannot be expected to infallibly detect all destructive bubbles, and may trigger false alarms, but it ought to alert observers to periods where collective investment behavior is becoming irrational.The proposed gullibility index might help in developing realistic economic models. It should also assist in illuminating and guiding decision-making.
机译：易怒性是产生气泡的主要原因。投资者和公众被一种“美丽的幻想”迷住了，并一头雾水。可能自然会被期望采取行动的当局经常（尤其是最近几年）是最容易受骗的国家，并且是行为猖behavior的啦啦队，这一事实使识别和控制泡沫的努力变得复杂。因此，需要的是一种客观的可测量性度量。本文认为，应该有可能制定这种度量。例子表明，与有效的市场教条相反，在某些狂热中，即使是顶尖的业务和技术领导者也沦为集体幻觉的猎物，客观上变得不理性。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，大类人首先无法理解复利，然后甚至失去了进行简单算术的能力，以至于无法将2与10相区别。这种现象以及对社交网络和相关领域的分析，指出了开发客观和定量工具来测量信度和涉及气泡的人类行为其他方面的可能方法。不能期望它能无误地检测到所有破坏性泡沫，并可能引发误报，但应提醒观察者注意集体投资行为变得不合理的时期。拟议的信度指数可能有助于发展现实的经济模型。它还应有助于启发和指导决策。

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