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首页> 外文期刊>Frontiers in Public Health >Mapping Avian Influenza Transmission Risk at the Interface of Domestic Poultry and Wild Birds
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Mapping Avian Influenza Transmission Risk at the Interface of Domestic Poultry and Wild Birds

机译：在家禽和野生鸟类交界处绘制禽流感传播风险图

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摘要

Emergence of avian influenza viruses with high lethality to humans, such as the currently circulating highly pathogenic A(H5N1) (emerged in 1996) and A(H7N9) cause serious concern for the global economic and public health sectors. Understanding the spatial and temporal interface between wild and domestic populations, from which these viruses emerge, is fundamental to taking action. This information, however, is rarely considered in influenza risk models, partly due to a lack of data. We aim to identify areas of high transmission risk between domestic poultry and wild waterfowl in China, the epicenter of both viruses. Two levels of models were developed: one that predicts hotspots of novel virus emergence between domestic and wild birds, and one that incorporates H5N1 risk factors, for which input data exists. Models were produced at 1 and 30 km spatial resolution, and two temporal seasons. Patterns of risk varied between seasons with higher risk in the northeast, central-east, and western regions of China during spring and summer, and in the central and southeastern regions during winter. Monte-Carlo uncertainty analyses indicated varying levels of model confidence, with lowest errors in the densely populated regions of eastern and southern China. Applications and limitations of the models are discussed within.
机译：具有高致死性的禽流感病毒的出现，例如当前正在传播的高致病性A（H5N1）（1996年出现）和A（H7N9），引起了全球经济和公共卫生部门的严重关注。了解这些病毒所产生的野生种群和家养种群之间的时空界面，对于采取行动至关重要。但是，由于缺乏数据，因此在流感风险模型中很少考虑该信息。我们的目标是确定中国家禽与野生水禽之间的高传播风险区域，这两种病毒的中心。建立了两个级别的模型：一个模型预测了家禽和野生鸟类之间新型病毒的出现热点，另一个模型包含了存在输入数据的H5N1危险因素。模型以1和30km的空间分辨率以及两个时间季节产生。在春季和夏季，中国东北，中东部和西部地区的风险较高的季节之间的风险模式有所不同，而冬季则在中部和东南部地区。蒙特卡洛不确定性分析表明，模型的置信水平各不相同，在中国东部和南部人口稠密的地区，误差最低。讨论了模型的应用和局限性。

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