• 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Malaria Journal >Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain
【24h】

Malaria resurgence risk in southern Europe: climate assessment in an historically endemic area of rice fields at the Mediterranean shore of Spain

机译：南欧的疟疾再度流行风险：西班牙地中海沿岸稻田历史悠久的地区的气候评估

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Background International travel and immigration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. This fact and climate change, prolonging the period favouring vector development, require an analysis of the malaria transmission resurgence risk in areas of southern Europe. Such a study is made for the first time in Spain. The Ebro Delta historically endemic area was selected due to its rice field landscape, the presence of only one vector, Anopheles atroparvus, with densities similar to those it presented when malaria was present, in a situation which pronouncedly differs from already assessed potential resurgence areas in other Mediterranean countries, such as France and Italy, where many different Anopheles species coexist and a different vector species dominates. Methods The transmission risk was assessed analysing: 1) climate diagrams including the minimum temperature for Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax development; 2) monthly evolution of the Gradient Model Risk (GMR) index, specifying transmission risk period and number of potential Plasmodium generations; 3) ecological characteristics using remote sensing images with the Eurasia Land Cover characteristics database and the monthly evolution of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI); 4) evaluation of A. atroparvus population dynamics. Results Climatological analyses and GMR index show that a transmission risk presently exists, lasting from May until September for P. falciparum, and from May until October for P. vivax. The GMR index shows that the temperature increase does not actually mean a transmission risk increase if accompanied by a precipitation decrease reducing the number of parasite generations and transmission period. Nevertheless, this limitation is offset by the artificial flooding of the rice fields. Maximum NDVI values and A. atroparvus maximum abundance correspond to months with maximum growth of the rice fields. Conclusions The Ebro Delta presents the ecological characteristics that favour transmission. The temperature increase has favoured a widening of the monthly potential transmission window with respect to when malaria was endemic. The combined application of modified climate diagrams and GMR index, together with spatial characterization conforms a useful tool for assessing potential areas at risk of malaria resurgence. NDVI is a good marker when dealing with a rice field area.
机译：背景国际旅行和移民与进口疟疾病例增加有关。这一事实和气候变化延长了有利于病媒发展的时期，因此需要对南欧地区疟疾传播再次流行的风险进行分析。这项研究是西班牙首次进行的。选择埃布罗三角洲的历史性流行地区是因为其稻田景观，仅存在一种媒介阿托氏按蚊，其密度与存在疟疾时所呈现的密度相似，而这种情况明显不同于已经评估的该国潜在的死灰复燃地区。其他地中海国家（例如法国和意大利），其中许多不同的按蚊物种共存，并且不同的媒介物种占主导地位。方法通过以下方法评估传播风险：1）气候图，包括恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫发育的最低温度; 2）梯度模型风险（GMR）指数的每月变化，规定了传播风险期和潜在的疟原虫世代数; 3）利用具有欧亚大陆覆盖特征数据库的遥感图像和归一化植被指数（NDVI）的每月演变来得出生态特征; 4）评价黄萎线虫种群动态。结果气候学分析和GMR指数表明，目前存在传播风险，恶性疟原虫的传播风险从5月持续到9月，间日疟原虫的传播风险从5月持续到10月。 GMR指数表明，温度升高实际上并不意味着传播风险增加，如果伴随着降水减少而减少了寄生虫世代的数量和传播时间。然而，这种限制被稻田的人工洪水所抵消。最大NDVI值和黄曲霉最大丰度对应于稻田最大生长的月份。结论埃布罗三角洲具有生态特征，有利于传播。温度升高有利于扩大疟疾流行时间的每月潜在传播窗口。修改后的气候图和GMR指数以及空间特征的组合应用，是评估潜在的疟疾复发风险地区的有用工具。在处理稻田时，NDVI是一个很好的标记。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号