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Interpretable Multiclass Models for Corporate Credit Rating Capable of Expressing Doubt

机译:可表达怀疑的企业信用评级的可解释的多类模型

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Corporate credit rating is a process to classify commercial enterprises based on their creditworthiness. Machine learning algorithms can construct classification models, but in general they do not tend to be 100% accurate. Since they can be used as decision support for experts, interpretable models are desirable. Unfortunately, interpretable models are provided by only few machine learners. Furthermore, credit rating often is a multiclass problem with more than two rating classes. Due to this fact, multiclass classification is often achieved via meta-algorithms using multiple binary learners. However, most state-of-the-art meta-algorithms destroy the interpretability of binary models. In this study, we present Thresholder, a binary interpretable threshold-based disjunctive normal form (DNF) learning algorithm in addition to modifications of popular multiclass meta-algorithms which maintain the interpretability of our binary classifier. Furthermore, we present an approach to express doubt in the decision of our model. Performance and model size are compared with other interpretable approaches for learning DNFs (RIPPER) and decision trees (C4.5) as well as non-interpretable models like random forests, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines. We evaluate their performances on three real-life data sets divided into three rating classes. In this case study all threshold-based and interpretable models perform equally well and significantly better than other methods. Our new Thresholder algorithm builds the smallest models while its performance is as good as the best methods of our case study. Furthermore, Thresholder marks many potential misclassifications in advance with a doubt label without increasing the classification error.
机译:企业信用评级是根据商业企业的信誉对商业企业进行分类的过程。机器学习算法可以构建分类模型,但是通常它们并不总是100%准确的。由于它们可以用作专家的决策支持,因此需要可解释的模型。不幸的是,只有少数机器学习者提供了可解释的模型。此外,信用评级通常是一个多类别的问题,具有两个以上的信用等级。由于这个事实,通常使用多个二进制学习器通过元算法来实现多类分类。但是,大多数最新的元算法都破坏了二进制模型的可解释性。在这项研究中,我们提出Thresholder,这是一种基于二进制可解释的基于阈值的析取范式(DNF)学习算法,此外还对流行的多类元算法进行了修改,从而保持了我们二进制分类器的可解释性。此外,我们提出了一种对模型决策表示怀疑的方法。将性能和模型大小与学习DNF(RIPPER)和决策树(C4.5)的其他可解释方法以及随机森林,人工神经网络和支持向量机等不可解释模型进行比较。我们根据分为三个等级的三个真实数据集评估他们的表现。在本案例研究中,所有基于阈值和可解释的模型均表现出色,并且明显优于其他方法。我们的新Thresholder算法可构建最小的模型,而其性能与案例研究的最佳方法一样好。此外,Thresholder预先用疑问标签标记了许多潜在的错误分类,而不会增加分类错误。

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