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首页> 外文期刊>Management Science Letters >Assessing the effects of removing of energy subsidies on urban passenger transportation within the city of Tehran based on a system dynamics approach
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Assessing the effects of removing of energy subsidies on urban passenger transportation within the city of Tehran based on a system dynamics approach

机译：基于系统动力学方法评估取消能源补贴对德黑兰市内城市客运的影响

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摘要

Cheap subsidized fuel supplied to transportation section has the most impact on traffic jam and air pollution in the Iranian megacities, especially Tehran. The 5th Five-Year Development Plan of the country aims at elimination of energy subsidies. Accordingly, this study examines the effects of the increase in the price of energy carriers in two different scenarios on megacities’ traffic and the corresponding variables. A system dynamics model is first designed to identify the most effective variables on traffic and urban transportation. The model considers an increase in the price of energy carriers based on the world price trends, until 2014 (the final year of the Subsidy Targeting Program), and evaluates the its impact on the relevant variables. The results reveal a short time reduction in transportation traffic volume. However, due to incremental trends in demand and production of vehicles, it returns to its first state.
机译：供应给运输部门的廉价补贴燃料对伊朗特大城市，特别是德黑兰的交通拥堵和空气污染影响最大。该国的第五个五年发展计划旨在消除能源补贴。因此，本研究考察了在两种不同情况下能源运输工具价格上涨对特大城市交通和相应变量的影响。首先设计系统动力学模型，以识别交通和城市交通中最有效的变量。该模型考虑了根据世界价格趋势直至2014年（补贴目标计划的最后一年）的能源运输船价格的上涨，并评估了其对相关变量的影响。结果表明，运输量在短时间内减少了。但是，由于车辆需求和生产的增加趋势，它恢复了其第一状态。

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