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Comparison of Stochastic Mortality Model for Wider Age Range

机译:年龄范围较大的随机死亡率模型的比较

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The incorporation of non-linear pattern of early ages has opened new research directions on improving the existing stochastic mortality model structure. Several authors have outlined the importance of encompassing the full age range in dealing with longevity risk exposure by not to ignore the dependence between young and old age. In this study, we consider the two extensions of Cairns, Blake and Dowd model that incorporate the irregularity profile seen at the mortality of lower ages which are Plat and O’Hare and Li. The models’ performances in terms of in-sample fitting and out-sample forecasts were examined and compared. The results indicated that O’Hare and Li model performs better as compared to Plat model
机译:早期非线性模式的纳入为改善现有的随机死亡率模型结构开辟了新的研究方向。几位作者概述了在避免长寿风险中涵盖整个年龄范围的重要性,而不是忽略年轻人和老年人之间的依赖性。在这项研究中,我们考虑了凯恩斯(Cairns)模型,布莱克(Blake)和陶氏(Dowd)模型的两个扩展,其中包括在普拉特(Plat)和奥黑尔(O'Hare)和李(Li)的较低年龄段的死亡率观察到的不规则性分布。检验并比较了模型在样本内拟合和样本外预测方面的表现。结果表明,与Plat模型相比,O'Hare和Li模型的性能更好

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