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Temporal changes in tolerance of uncertainty among medical students: insights from an exploratory study

机译：医学生不确定性容忍度的时间变化：一项探索性研究的见解

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BackgroundPhysicians’ tolerance of uncertainty (TU) is a trait potentially associated with desirable outcomes, and emerging evidence suggests it may change over time. Past studies of TU, however, have been cross-sectional and have not measured tolerance of the different, specific types of uncertainty that physicians confront. We addressed these limitations in a longitudinal exploratory study of medical students.MethodsAt the end of medical school (Doctor of Medicine degree) Years 1 and 4, a cohort of 26 students at a US medical school completed measures assessing tolerance of different types of uncertainty: 1) complexity (uncertainty arising from features of information that make it difficult to comprehend); 2) risk (uncertainty arising from the indeterminacy of future outcomes); and 3) ambiguity (uncertainty arising from limitations in the reliability, credibility, or adequacy of information). Change in uncertainty-specific TU was assessed using paired t -tests.ResultsBetween Years 1 and 4, there was a significant decrease in tolerance of ambiguity (t =3.22, p =0.004), but no change in students’ tolerance of complexity or risk.ConclusionsTolerance of ambiguity – but not other types of uncertainty – decreases during medical school, suggesting that TU is a multidimensional, partially mutable state. Future studies should measure tolerance of different uncertainties and examine how TU might be improved.
机译：背景技术医师的不确定性容忍度（TU）是一种可能与理想结果相关的特征，而新兴证据表明，这种不确定性可能会随着时间而改变。但是，过去对TU的研究是横断面的，没有测量对医生面临的不同，特定类型的不确定性的容忍度。方法在医学院的纵向探索性研究中解决了这些局限性。方法在医学院（医学博士学位）的1年级和4年级结束时，美国医学院的26名学生完成了评估各种不确定性容忍度的措施： 1）复杂性（由于难以理解的信息特征引起的不确定性）; 2）风险（未来结果不确定性引起的不确定性）; 3）模棱两可（不确定性是由于信息的可靠性，可信性或充分性方面的限制而引起的）。使用成对的t检验评估不确定度特定的TU的变化。结果在第1年和第4年之间，歧义容忍度显着降低（t = 3.22，p = 0.004），但没有结论对医学的理解是，歧义的容忍度（而不是其他类型的不确定性）在降低，这表明TU是多维的，部分可变的状态。未来的研究应衡量不同不确定性的容忍度，并研究如何改善TU。

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