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On the inclusion of GPS precipitable water vapour in the nowcasting of rainfall

机译：关于降雨临近预报中包含GPS可沉淀水汽的问题

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The temporal behaviour of precipitable water vapour (PWV) retrieved from GPSdelay data is analysed in a number of case studies of intense precipitationin the Lisbon area, in the period 2010–2012 and in a continuous annual cycleof 2012 observations. Such behaviour is found to correlate positively withthe probability of precipitation, especially in cases of severe rainfall. Theevolution of the GPS PWV in a few stations is analysed by a least-squaresfitting of a broken line tendency, made by a temporal sequence of ascents anddescents over the data. It is found that most severe rainfall events occur indescending trends after a long ascending period and that the most intenseevents occur after steep ascents in PWV. A simple algorithm, forecasting rainin the 6 h after a steep ascent of the GPS PWV in a single station, is foundto produce reasonable forecasts of the occurrence of precipitation in thenearby region, without significant misses in what concerns larger rainevents, but with a substantial amount of false alarms. It is suggested thatthis method could be improved by the analysis of 2-D or 3-D time-varying GPSPWV fields or by its joint use with other meteorological data relevant tonowcast precipitation.
机译：在2010-2012年期间以及2012年连续的年度观测中，对里斯本地区强降水的大量案例研究分析了从GPSdelay数据中检索到的可沉淀水蒸气（PWV）的时间行为。发现这种行为与降水概率呈正相关，特别是在强降雨的情况下。通过对数据趋势的上升和下降的时间序列进行的虚线趋势的最小二乘拟合，分析了GPS PWV在几个站点中的演变。发现在长时间上升之后，最严重的降雨事件发生下降趋势，而在PWV中，最剧烈的事件发生在陡峭上升之后。发现一种简单的算法，即在单个站中GPS PWV陡峭上升后的6小时内预报降雨，可以对随后的区域中的降雨发生进行合理的预测，而对于较大的降雨事件却没有重大的遗漏，但是有大量的降雨错误警报。建议该方法可以通过分析2D或3D时变GPSPWV场或与其他与降水有关的气象数据联合使用来改进。

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