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Influence of finite-time Lyapunov exponents on winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula

机译：限时Lyapunov指数对伊比利亚半岛冬季降水的影响

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Seasonal forecasts have improved during the last decades, mostly due to an increase in understanding of the coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamics, and the development of models able to predict the atmosphere variability. Correlations between different teleconnection patterns and severe weather in different parts of the world are constantly evolving and changing. This paper evaluates the connection between winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula and the large-scale tropospheric mixing over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. Finite-time Lyapunov exponents (FTLEs) have been calculated from 1979 to 2008 to evaluate this mixing. Our study suggests that significant negative correlations exist between summer FTLE anomalies and winter precipitation over Portugal and Spain. To understand the mechanisms behind this correlation, summer anomalies of the FTLE have also been correlated with other climatic variables such as the sea surface temperature (SST), the sea level pressure (SLP) or the geopotential. The East Atlantic (EA) teleconnection index correlates with the summer FTLE anomalies, confirming their role as a seasonal predictor for winter precipitation over the Iberian Peninsula.
机译：在过去的几十年中，季节性预报得到了改善，这主要是由于人们对海洋-大气动力学耦合的了解增加，以及能够预测大气变化的模型的发展。世界不同地区的不同远程连接模式与恶劣天气之间的关系正在不断发展和变化。本文评估了伊比利亚半岛的冬季降水与东大西洋大尺度对流层混合的关系。从1979年到2008年计算了有限时间的Lyapunov指数（FTLE），以评估这种混合。我们的研究表明，夏季FTLE异常与葡萄牙和西班牙的冬季降水之间存在显着的负相关。为了理解这种相关性背后的机理，FTLE的夏季异常还与其他气候变量（例如海面温度（SST），海平面压力（SLP）或地势）相关联。东大西洋（EA）遥相关指数与夏季FTLE异常相关，证实了它们是伊比利亚半岛冬季降水的季节预报因子。

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