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Application of Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence model to geoelectric and hydraulic parameters for groundwater potential zonation

机译:证据模型的Dempster-Shafer理论在地下水电势分区的地电和水力参数中的应用

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The application of a GIS – based Dempster – Shafer data driven model named as evidential belief function EBF- methodology to groundwater potential conditioning factors (GPCFs) derived from geophysical and hydrogeological data sets for assessing groundwater potentiality was presented in this study. The proposed method’s efficacy in managing degree of uncertainty in spatial predictive models motivated this research. The method procedural approaches entail firstly, the database containing groundwater data records (bore wells location inventory, hydrogeological data record, etc.) and geophysical measurement data construction. From the database, different influencing groundwater occurrence factors, namely aquifer layer thickness, aquifer layer resistivity, overburden material resistivity, overburden material thickness, aquifer hydraulic conductivity and aquifer transmissivity were extracted and prepared. Further, the bore well location inventories were partitioned randomly into a ratio of 70% (19 wells) for model training and 30% (9 wells) for model testing. The synthesized of the GPCFs via applying the DS – EBF model algorithms produced the groundwater productivity potential index (GPPI) map which demarcated the area into low – medium, medium, medium – high and high potential zones. The analyzed percentage degree of uncertainty for the predicted lows potential zones classes and mediums/highs potential zones classes are >10% and <10%, respectively. The DS theory model-based GPPI map’s validation through ROC approach established prediction rate accuracy of 88.8%. Successively, the determined transverse resistance (TR) values in the range of 1280 and 30,000???myfor the area geoelectrically delineated aquifer units of the predicted potential zones through Dar – Zarrouk Parameter analysis quantitatively confirm the DS theory modeling prediction results. This research results have expand the capability of DS – EBF model in predictive modeling by effective uncertainty management. Thus, the produced map could form part of decision support system reliable to be used by local authorities for groundwater exploitation and management in the area.
机译:本研究介绍了基于GIS的Dempster-Shafer数据驱动模型(称为证据置信函数EBF方法)在从地球物理和水文地质数据集中获得的地下水潜力条件因子(GPCF)中的应用,以评估地下水潜力。所提出的方法在管理空间预测模型中的不确定度方面的功效激发了这项研究。该方法的程序方法首先需要包含地下水数据记录(井位位置清单,水文地质数据记录等)和地球物理测量数据构造的数据库。从数据库中,提取并准备了影响地下水发生的不同因素,即含水层厚度,含水层电阻率,上覆材料电阻率,上覆材料厚度,含水层水力传导率和含水层透过率。此外,将井眼位置库存随机分为70%(19口井)用于模型训练和30%(9口井)用于模型测试。通过应用DS – EBF模型算法对GPCF进行综合,得出了地下水生产率潜力指数(GPPI)图,该图将区域划分为中低,中,中,高和高潜力区。预测的低势区域类别和中/高势区域类别的不确定度分析百分比分别为> 10%和<10%。基于DS理论模型的ROC方法对GPPI地图的验证建立了88.8%的预测率准确性。随后,通过Dar-Zarrouk参数分析,为预测电位区的区域用电描写的含水层单位确定的横向电阻(TR)值在1280和30,000?my范围内,定量地证实了DS理论建模的预测结果。这项研究结果通过有效的不确定性管理扩展了DS – EBF模型在预测建模中的能力。因此,生成的地图可以构成可靠的决策支持系统的一部分,地方当局可将其用于该地区的地下水开发和管理。

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