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Evaluation of Resource and Environmental Carrying Capacity of China’s Rapid-Urbanization Areas—A Case Study of Xinbei District, Changzhou

机译：中国快速城市化地区资源环境承载力评价-以常州市新北区为例

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The evaluation of resource and environmental carrying capacity (RECC) is the foundation for the rationale behind the arrangement of land spaces for production, living, and ecological uses. In this study, based on various natural, economic, and social factors, an integrated Multi-Factor assessment model was developed to evaluate the RECC of Xinbei district of Changzhou. Meanwhile, we also calculated the population carrying capacity estimation model restricted by food security. The study comprehensively analyzed the current status and land resource characteristics of a rapid urbanization area and the RECC restrictions for protection and development. The results indicate that the comprehensive carrying capacity of Xinbei showed distinct spatial heterogeneity, with a decreasing trend from the riverside protection area to urban areas, then to mountain areas. Combined with the secure food supply provided by future land resources, it was estimated that the population carrying index of Xinbei would be as high as 1.25 and 1.22 in 2035 and 2050, respectively, indicating that both years would experience a population overload. Therefore, an urgent adjustment to the structure and layout of territorial space and resources of the Xinbei District is necessary.
机译：资源和环境承载力（RECC）的评估是为生产，生活和生态用途布置土地空间的基本原理的基础。在本研究中，基于各种自然，经济和社会因素，开发了一个综合的多因素评估模型来评估常州新北区的RECC。同时，我们还计算了受粮食安全约束的人口承载力估计模型。该研究综合分析了快速城市化地区的现状和土地资源特征，以及RECC的保护和发展限制。结果表明，新北县的综合承载力表现出明显的空间异质性，从河岸保护区到市区再到山区，呈下降趋势。结合未来土地资源提供的安全粮食供应，估计新北的人口携带指数在2035年和2050年将分别高达1.25和1.22，这表明这两年都将经历人口超负荷。因此，迫切需要对新北区的领土空间和资源的结构和布局进行调整。

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