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Operationalizing Vulnerability: Land System Dynamics in a Transfrontier Conservation Area

机译：运营脆弱性：边境保护区的土地系统动态

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Understanding how individuals, communities, and populations vary in their vulnerability requires defining and identifying vulnerability with respect to a condition, and then developing robust methods to reliably measure vulnerability. In this study, we illustrate how a conceptual model translated via simulation can guide the real-world implementation of data collection and measurement of a model system. We present a generalizable statistical framework that specifies linkages among interacting social and biophysical components in complex landscapes to examine vulnerability. We use the simulated data to present a case study in which households are vulnerable to conditions of land function, which we define as the provision of goods and services from the surrounding environment. We use an example of a transboundary region of Southern Africa and apply a set of hypothesized, simulated data to illustrate how one might use the framework to assess vulnerability based on empirical data. We define vulnerability as the predisposition of being adversely affected by environmental variation and its impacts on land uses and their outcomes as exposure (E), mediated by sensitivity (S), and mitigated by adaptive capacity (AC). We argue that these are latent, or hidden, characteristics that can be measured through a set of observable indicators. Those indicators and the linkages between latent variables require model specification prior to data collection, critical for applying the type of modeling framework presented. We discuss the strength and directional pathways between land function and vulnerability components, and assess their implications for identifying potential leverage points within the system for the benefit of future policy and management decisions.
机译：要了解个人，社区和人群的脆弱性如何变化，需要定义和识别针对某个条件的脆弱性，然后开发可靠的方法来可靠地衡量脆弱性。在这项研究中，我们说明了通过仿真转换的概念模型如何指导实际的数据收集和模型系统测量的实现。我们提供了一个可概括的统计框架，该框架指定了复杂景观中相互作用的社会和生物物理成分之间的联系，以研究脆弱性。我们使用模拟数据提出了一个案例研究，其中家庭容易受到土地功能条件的影响，我们将其定义为从周围环境提供商品和服务。我们以南部非洲跨界地区为例，并应用一组假设的模拟数据来说明如何使用该框架基于经验数据评估脆弱性。我们将脆弱性定义为易受环境变化及其对土地利用及其结果的不利影响的易感性，以敏感性（S）为媒介，以适应性（AC）为缓解，以暴露（E）的形式受到影响。我们认为，这些是潜在的或隐藏的特征，可以通过一组可观察的指标进行度量。这些指标和潜在变量之间的联系需要在数据收集之前指定模型，这对于应用所提供的建模框架的类型至关重要。我们讨论了土地功能和脆弱性组件之间的强度和方向性途径，并评估了它们对识别系统中潜在杠杆点的益处，以利于未来的政策和管理决策。

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