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Policies and Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions from a Top-Down and a Bottom-Up Perspective

机译：自上而下和自下而上的政策和基于消耗的碳排放

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Two major approaches for calculating consumption-based carbon emissions can be distinguished: top-down approaches, in the form of multi-regional input-output (MRIO) models, and bottom-up approaches, in the form of life cycle assessment (LCA). Both approaches have pros and cons and are very data-intensive. Several MRIO databases have been developed and published over the past years. These databases, which have been refined and validated, will be used for policy analysis. As LCA is usually only applied to very specific products and product groups, analysis is limited and many products have not yet been looked at. This paper makes use of both a top-down and bottom-up approach to calculate the impacts of different policy measures on the development of consumption-based carbon emissions in the EU28 and on emissions elsewhere in the world. The policy examples used are the EU’s CO2 in Cars Regulations and the South African renewable energy initiative. The results from the top-down approach are then compared with those from the bottom-up approach. Both bottom-up and top-down approaches use the same underlying assumptions regarding the impacts, but due to the very different nature of the methodologies, differences in the results are observed, though sign and scope of the results are the same for the two cases. Part of the deviations can be explained by differences in methodology and scenario design due to these differences. It can be concluded that bottom-up and top-down approaches can and need to be applied to different policies and are generally complementary.
机译：可以区分两种主要的基于消耗的碳排放量计算方法：自上而下的方法（以多区域投入产出（MRIO）模型的形式）和自下而上的方法（以生命周期评估（LCA）的形式） 。两种方法各有利弊，而且数据密集。在过去的几年中，已经开发并发布了几个MRIO数据库。这些经过完善和验证的数据库将用于策略分析。由于LCA通常仅适用于非常特定的产品和产品组，因此分析受到限制，许多产品尚未被研究。本文利用自上而下和自下而上的方法来计算不同的政策措施对欧盟28国基于消费的碳排放的发展以及对世界其他地方的排放的影响。使用的政策示例包括欧盟的《汽车二氧化碳法规》和南非的可再生能源计划。然后将自顶向下方法的结果与自底向上方法的结果进行比较。自下而上和自上而下的方法都使用关于影响的相同基本假设，但是由于方法的本质非常不同，因此观察到了结果差异，尽管两种情况下结果的符号和范围相同。由于这些差异，部分偏差可以通过方法和方案设计上的差异来解释。可以得出结论，自下而上和自上而下的方法可以并且需要应用于不同的政策，并且通常是互补的。

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