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首页> 外文期刊>Low Carbon Economy >Producing a Double Dividend for the EU-27 and USA with the Macro-Economic E4M-GAIA Model: Meeting G8 80% Emissions Reduction Target Leads to Economic Growth
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Producing a Double Dividend for the EU-27 and USA with the Macro-Economic E4M-GAIA Model: Meeting G8 80% Emissions Reduction Target Leads to Economic Growth

机译：通过宏观经济E4M-GAIA模型为欧盟27国和美国提供双倍股息：实现G8减排80％的目标可促进经济增长

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摘要

The international negotiations concerning climate change, taken place during the UNFCCC conference in Durban at the end of year 2011, have failed to establish a new global agreement to reduce global emissions. Therefore, the G8 commitments on 80% reduction by 2050 seems to be the most realistic climate change mitigation framework for the time being, enhanced by the political will of the EU and USA administrations. For the needs of this paper, the G8 80% target is further extended to cover the whole EU-27 region, where the reduction commitments of the EU-27 member states are allocated based on the relevant allocation weights considered for the Kyoto Protocol obligations. This paper examines the implementation of the EU-27 and USA 80% emissions reduction target using a macro-economic hybrid model E4M-GAIA of the global economy, standing for Energy-Economy-Environment-Engineering Model of the Earth. The E4M-GAIA model, which adopts similar theoretical background with the “New Economics” school depicted mainly in the well-established Cambridge University’ E3 models, is used to implement this target and to compare it with a reference scenario, where no reduction target is pursued. Both scenarios consider that impact of the financial crisis, with updated information to the end of 2010. This paper aims to provide evidence that the proper direction of a portfolio of policies including: regulation, behavioral shift, revenue recycling, energy investments, energy and carbon pricing, can lead to double dividend, namely meeting a deep reduction target and providing gains for the economy.
机译：2011年年底在德班举行的《气候公约》会议上进行的有关气候变化的国际谈判未能建立新的全球协议以减少全球排放量。因此，八国集团关于到2050年减排80％的承诺似乎是暂时最现实的缓解气候变化框架，并受到欧盟和美国政府的政治意愿的支持。出于本文的需要，将G8 80％的目标进一步扩展至整个EU-27地区，在该区域中，EU-27成员国的减排承诺是根据《京都议定书》义务考虑的相关分配权重进行分配的。本文使用全球经济的宏观经济混合模型E4M-GAIA（代表地球的能源-经济-环境-工程模型）检验了欧盟27国和美国80％减排目标的实施情况。 E4M-GAIA模型采用的理论背景与主要在成熟的剑桥大学E3模型中描绘的“新经济学”流派相似，用于实现此目标并将其与没有减少目标的参考方案进行比较被追求。两种情况都考虑了金融危机的影响，并提供了截至2010年底的最新信息。本文旨在提供证据，证明一系列政策组合的正确方向，包括：监管，行为转变，收入回收，能源投资，能源和碳排放定价可以带来双倍的股息，即达到大幅削减的目标并为经济带来收益。

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