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Assessment of Spatial and Temporal Flow Variability of the Indus River

机译：印度河的时空流量变化评估

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Considerable controversy exists among researchers over the behavior of glaciers in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) with regard to climate change. Glacier monitoring studies using the Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques have given rise to contradictory results for various reasons. This uncertain situation deserves a thorough examination of the statistical trends of temperature and streamflow at several gauging stations, rather than relying solely on climate projections. Planning for equitable distribution of water among provinces in Pakistan requires accurate estimation of future water resources under changing flow regimes. Due to climate change, hydrological parameters are changing significantly; consequently the pattern of flows are changing. The present study assesses spatial and temporal flow variability and identifies drought and flood periods using flow data from the Indus River. Trends and variations in river flows were investigated by applying the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method. We divide the annual water cycle into two six-month and four three-month seasons based on the local water cycle pattern. A decile indices technique is used to determine drought and flood periods. Overall, the analysis indicates that flow and temperature variabilities are greater seasonally than annually. At the Tarbela Dam, Indus River, annual mean, maximum, and minimum flows decreased steeply from 1986–2010 compared to the 1961–1985 period. Seasonal flow analysis unveils a more complex flow regime: Winter (October–March), (December–February), and spring (March–May) seasons demonstrate increasing flows along with increasing maximum temperature, whereas summer (April–September), (June–August) and autumn (September–November) showed decreasing trends in the flow. Spatial analysis shows that minimum discharge increased at the higher elevation gauging station (Kharmong, 2542 m.a.s.l.) and decreased at the lower elevation gauging station (Tarbela). Over the same timeframe, maximum and mean discharges decreased more substantially at lower elevations than at higher elevations. Drought and flood analysis revealed 2000–2004 to be the driest period in the Indus Basin for this record.
机译：研究人员对上印度河流域（UIB）的冰川在气候变化方面的行为存在相当大的争议。由于各种原因，使用地理信息系统（GIS）和遥感技术进行的冰川监测研究得出了相互矛盾的结果。这种不确定的情况值得彻底检查几个计量站温度和流量的统计趋势，而不是仅仅依靠气候预测。巴基斯坦各省之间的水资源公平分配计划要求在不断变化的水流制度下准确估算未来的水资源。由于气候变化，水文参数发生了巨大变化。因此，流动的方式正在改变。本研究使用来自印度河的流量数据评估时空流量的变化并确定干旱和洪水时期。应用Mann-Kendall检验和Sen方法研究了河流流量的趋势和变化。根据当地的水循环模式，我们将年度水循环分为两个六个月和四个三个月的季节。十分位指数技术用于确定干旱和洪水时期。总体而言，分析表明，流量和温度变化在季节上要比每年更大。与1961-1985年相比，印度河的塔贝拉大坝的年均流量，最大流量和最小流量在1986-2010年期间急剧下降。季节性流量分析揭示了更复杂的流量模式：冬季（10月至3月），（12月至2月）和春季（3月至5月）季节显示出流量随最高温度的升高而增加，而夏季（4月至9月）（6月– 8月）和秋季（9月– 11月）显示流量下降趋势。空间分析表明，最低排水量在较高海拔的测量站（Kharmong，2542 m.a.s.l.）处增加，在较低海拔的测量站（Tarbela）处减少。在相同的时间范围内，最高海拔处的最大流量和平均流量比较高海拔处的流量下降幅度更大。干旱和洪水分析表明，根据该记录，2000-2004年是印度河流域最干旱的时期。

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