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Prospective Analysis of Life-Cycle Indicators through Endogenous Integration into a National Power Generation Model

机译：通过内生整合到国家发电模型中来对生命周期指标进行前瞻性分析

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Given the increasing importance of sustainability aspects in national energy plans, this article deals with the prospective analysis of life-cycle indicators of the power generation sector through the case study of Spain. A technology-rich, optimisation-based model for power generation in Spain is developed and provided with endogenous life-cycle indicators (climate change, resources, and human health) to assess their evolution to 2050. Prospective performance indicators are analysed under two energy scenarios: a business-as-usual one, and an alternative scenario favouring the role of carbon dioxide capture in the electricity production mix by 2050. Life-cycle impacts are found to decrease substantially when existing fossil technologies disappear in the mix (especially coal thermal power plants). In the long term, the relatively high presence of natural gas arises as the main source of impact. When the installation of new fossil options without CO 2 capture is forbidden by 2030, both renewable technologies and—to a lesser extent—fossil technologies with CO 2 capture are found to increase their contribution to electricity production. The endogenous integration of life-cycle indicators into energy models proves to boost the usefulness of both life cycle assessment and energy systems modelling in order to support decision- and policy-making.
机译：鉴于可持续发展方面在国家能源计划中的重要性日益提高，本文通过西班牙的案例研究，对发电行业生命周期指标进行前瞻性分析。开发了一种技术丰富，基于优化的西班牙发电模型，并提供了内生生命周期指标（气候变化，资源和人类健康）来评估其到2050年的演变。在两种能源情景下分析了预期的性能指标：按惯例进行交易，并提出一种替代方案，在2050年之前支持二氧化碳在电力生产结构中的捕获。当现有化石技术消失时，生命周期的影响将大大减少（尤其是煤热发电）植物）。从长远来看，相对较高的天然气含量是影响的主要来源。当到2030年禁止安装没有捕获CO 2的新化石选件时，发现可再生技术和带有CO 2捕获的化石技术（在较小程度上）都将增加其对电力生产的贡献。将生命周期指标内生地集成到能源模型中，证明可以提高生命周期评估和能源系统建模的有用性，以支持决策和决策。

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