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首页> 外文期刊>Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia >ANáLISES CLIMáTICAS: O FILTRO HODRICK-PRESCOTT APLICADO AOS íNDICES ATMOSFéRICOS DA OSCILA??O SUL E DA OSCILA??O DO ATL?NTICO NORTE
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ANáLISES CLIMáTICAS: O FILTRO HODRICK-PRESCOTT APLICADO AOS íNDICES ATMOSFéRICOS DA OSCILA??O SUL E DA OSCILA??O DO ATL?NTICO NORTE

机译：气候分析：HODRICK-PRESCOTT滤波器适用于南震和北震的大气指数

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摘要

The existence of apparent cycles or periodicities in long time series of meteorological variables helps understanding the physical processes that control the climate and the identified cycles may serve as tools for regional climate prognostics. With this insight, the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter was applied to the series of Southern Oscillation (SOI) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices covering the 1900 to 2010 period. The application of the HP filter to a time series results into two new time series, one of the trend and other of the cyclic/random signal of the variable. Afterwards, the two series were submitted to the Morlet wavelet transform analysis for identifying the apparent cycles. The SOI trend presented cycles of 6, 9, 17 and 28 years, the first associated to the El Ni?o/La Ni?a Cycle and the next two possibly related to the 18 year Lunar Nodal Cycle (Saros Cycle), and the remainder, to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) cycle. The NAO trend showed 6, 9 and 33 year cycles, the last two possibly related to the Saros Cycle. The linear correlation coefficients between the cyclic/ random SOI series, with 6 month lead, and the Brazilian rainfall totals presented high values, up to 0.72 and -0.67 for the country's northern and southern regions, respectively, during the 1948-1999 (52 years) period, with a statistical significance level above 99%. This period covers the two recent PDO phases. Considering that climate models still do not have still adequate skill for regional forecasting in Brazil, it is suggested that the climate forecasting technique, using up to 6 month leading time of the cyclic/random SOI series, be exploited and, eventually, validated.
机译：长时间的气象变量序列中存在明显的周期或周期性有助于理解控制气候的物理过程，确定的周期可作为区域气候预测的工具。有了这一见识，Hodrick-Prescott（HP）过滤器应用于涵盖1900至2010年期间的一系列南方涛动（SOI）和北大西洋涛动（NAO）指数。将HP滤波器应用于时间序列会导致两个新的时间序列，一个是趋势，另一个是变量的循环/随机信号。之后，将这两个系列提交给Morlet小波变换分析以识别表观周期。 SOI趋势呈现为6、9、17和28年的周期，第一个与El Ni？o / La Ni？a周期有关，接下来的两个可能与18年的月球周期（Saros周期）有关，其余部分，进入太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）周期。 NAO趋势显示为6、9和33年周期，最后两个可能与Saros周期有关。 1948年至1999年（52年），该国北部和南部地区的周期性/随机SOI系列（含6个月铅）与巴西降雨总量之间的线性相关系数呈现高值，分别达到该国北部和南部地区的0.72和-0.67。 ）期间，其统计显着性水平高于99％。这个时期涵盖了两个最近的PDO阶段。考虑到气候模型仍然没有足够的技能来进行巴西的区域预测，建议开发并最终验证使用气候预测技术，该技术使用周期/随机SOI系列的长达6个月的前置时间。

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