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首页> 外文期刊>Risk Governance & Control: Financial Markets & Institutions >LIFE INSURANCE, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN APPLICATION OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL
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LIFE INSURANCE, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN APPLICATION OF THE AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG MODEL

机译：南非的人寿保险，金融发展和经济增长：自动回归分布式滞后模型的应用

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摘要

The life insurance sector may contribute to economic growth by its very mechanism of savings mobilisation and thereby performing an intermediation role in the economy. This ensures that capital is provided to deficient units who are in need of capital to finance their working capital requirements and invest in technology thereby resulting in an increase in output. In this way, it could be argued that life insurance development spurs financial development. In this article we investigate the causal relationship between the life insurance sector, financial development and economic growth in South Africa for the period 1990 to 2012 by applying the ARDL bounds testing procedure. We make use of life insurance density as the proxy for life insurance development, real per capita growth domestic product as the proxy for economic growth and real broad money per capita as the proxy for financial development. We test for cointegration amongst the variables by applying the bounds test and then proceed to test for Granger causality based on the error correction model. Our results confirm that the variables are cointegrated and move in tandem to each other in the long-run. The results also indicate that the direction of causality runs from the economy to the life insurance sector in the short-run which is consistent with the “demand-following” insurance-growth hypothesis. There is also evidence of bidirectional Granger causality running from the economy to financial development and vice versa, both in the long-run and short-run. The results also reveal that life insurance complements financial development in bringing about economic growth further lending credence to the “complementarity” hypothesis.
机译：人寿保险业可以通过其储蓄动员机制为经济增长做出贡献，从而在经济中发挥中介作用。这样可以确保将资金提供给需要资金以供其运营资本需求和技术投资的贫乏单位，从而提高产量。这样，可以说寿险业的发展刺激了金融业的发展。在本文中，我们通过应用ARDL界限测试程序，调查了1990年至2012年南非的寿险业，金融发展与经济增长之间的因果关系。我们以人寿保险密度作为人寿保险发展的指标，以人均实际国内生产总值作为经济增长的指标，以人均实际广义货币作为金融发展的指标。我们通过应用边界检验来测试变量之间的协整，然后基于纠错模型来检验格兰杰因果关系。我们的结果证实了变量是协整的，并且从长远来看是相互串联的。结果还表明，因果关系的方向是从短期到经济，再到人寿保险部门，这与“跟随需求”的保险增长假说是一致的。从长期到短期，从经济到金融发展，反之亦然，有双向格兰杰因果关系的证据。结果还表明，人寿保险在促进经济增长的过程中补充了金融发展，从而进一步证明了“互补性”假设。

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