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Long Island Sound temperature variability and its associations with the ridge–trough dipole and tropical modes of sea surface temperature variability

机译:长岛声温变化及其与海槽偶极子和热带海表温度变化的关系

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Possible mechanisms behind the longevity of intense Long Island Sound (LIS) water temperature events are examined using an event-based approach. By decomposing an LIS surface water temperature time series into negative and positive events, it is revealed that the most intense LIS water temperature event in the 1979–2013 period occurred around 2012, coinciding with the 2012 ocean heat wave across the Mid-Atlantic Bight. The LIS events are related to a ridge–trough dipole pattern whose strength and evolution can be determined using a dipole index. The dipole index was shown to be strongly correlated with LIS water temperature anomalies, explaining close to 64?% of cool-season LIS water temperature variability. Consistently, a major dipole pattern event coincided with the intense 2012 LIS warm event. A composite analysis revealed that long-lived intense LIS water temperature events are associated with tropical sea surface temperature (SST) patterns. The onset and mature phases of LIS cold events were shown to coincide with central Pacific El Ni?o events, whereas the termination of LIS cold events was shown to possibly coincide with canonical El Ni?o events or El Ni?o events that are a mixture of eastern and central Pacific El Ni?o flavors. The mature phase of LIS warm events was shown to be associated with negative SST anomalies across the central equatorial Pacific, though the results were not found to be robust. The dipole pattern was also shown to be related to tropical SST patterns, and fluctuations in central Pacific SST anomalies were shown to evolve coherently with the dipole pattern and the strongly related East Pacific–North Pacific pattern on decadal timescales. The results from this study have important implications for seasonal and decadal prediction of the LIS thermal system.
机译:使用基于事件的方法研究了长岛声音(LIS)激烈的水温事件长寿背后的可能机制。通过将LIS地表水温度时间序列分解为负事件和正事件,可以发现1979-2013年期间最强烈的LIS水温事件发生在2012年左右,这与2012年大西洋中部海域的热浪相吻合。 LIS事件与脊沟偶极子模式有关,其强度和演化可以使用偶极子指数确定。偶极子指数与LIS水温异常密切相关,解释了凉季LIS水温变异性接近64%。一致地,一个重大的偶极子模式事件与2012年强烈的LIS温暖事件同时发生。一项综合分析显示,长期强烈的LIS水温事件与热带海表温度(SST)模式有关。 LIS冷事件的发生和成熟阶段与太平洋中部厄尔尼诺事件相吻合,而LIS冷事件的终止可能与典型的厄尔尼诺事件或厄尔尼诺事件相吻合。东部和中部太平洋El Ni?o口味的混合物。事实表明,LIS暖事件的成熟阶段与赤道中太平洋的负SST异常有关,尽管结果并不可靠。偶极子模式也被证明与热带海表温度模式有关,并且太平洋中部海表温度异常的波动也与偶极子模式以及年代际尺度上与东太平洋-北太平洋模式密切相关的演变一致。这项研究的结果对LIS热力系统的季节和年代际预测具有重要意义。

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