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Asymmetric Oil Price Shock Response: A Comparative Analysis

机译:非对称油价冲击响应:比较分析

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This paper extends the literature on the effects of oil-price shocks using United States, Norway and South Africa as case studies between 1980 and 2010. The Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) and Panel VAR methodologies are employed as an extension to the conventional unrestricted Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. Results show that the developed economies (United States and Norway) stick to the non-linear oil-price shock specifications as argued in the literature. However, these are not feasible within the context of the emerging net-oil importing economy. Furthermore, Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model decisively restricts the oil-price shock effects while the effects intended to be captured may have been overruled by the identification restrictions imposed. Nevertheless, the Panel VAR methodology is able to accommodate all oil-price shock specifications. The claim that there exists a transmission mechanism through which positive oil price shock accruals can be beneficial to the global community was empirically verified using Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as a proxy. In the other way round, there is suggestive evidence of possible unprecedented and unsatisfactory effects during negative oil-price shock periods.
机译:本文以美国,挪威和南非为例,在1980年至2010年之间扩展了有关油价冲击影响的文献。结构向量自回归(SVAR)和Panel VAR方法被用作常规无限制向量的扩展。自回归(VAR)模型。结果表明,发达经济体(美国和挪威)坚持使用非线性油价冲击指标,这在文献中已有论证。然而,在新兴的净石油进口经济的背景下,这是不可行的。此外,结构矢量自回归(SVAR)模型可决定性地限制油价冲击效应,而旨在捕获的效应可能已被施加的识别限制所推翻。但是,Panel VAR方法能够适应所有油价冲击指标。使用外国直接投资(FDI)作为代理,通过经验验证了存在一种传播机制的经验,该机制可以通过积极的油价冲击累积对全球社会带来好处。另一方面,有迹象表明,在负面的油价震荡时期,可能出现前所未有的影响和不令人满意的影响。

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