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首页> 外文期刊>San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science >Agricultural Losses from Salinity in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta
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Agricultural Losses from Salinity in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

机译：加利福尼亚萨克拉曼多-圣华金三角洲盐度造成的农业损失

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Sea level rise, large-scale flooding, and new conveyance arrangements for water exports may increase future water salinity for local agricultural production in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Increasing salinity in crop root zones often decreases crop yields and crop revenues. Salinity effects are nonlinear, and vary with crop choice and other factors including drainage and residence time of irrigation water. Here, we explore changes in agricultural production in the Delta under various combinations of water management, large-scale flooding, and future sea level rise. Water management alternatives include through-Delta water exports (current conditions), dual conveyance (through-Delta and a 6,700?Mm3 yr?1 [or 7500 cfs] capacity peripheral canal or tunnel) and the flooding of five western islands with and without peripheral exports. We employ results from previous hydrodynamic simulations of likely changes in salinity for irrigation water at points in the Delta. We connect these irrigation water salinity values into a detailed agro-economic model of Delta agriculture to estimate local crop yield and farm revenue losses. Previous hydrodynamic modeling work shows that sea level rise is likely to increase salinity from 4% to 130% in this century, depending on the increase in sea level and location. Changes in water management under dual conveyance increase salinity mostly in the western Delta, and to a lesser extent in the north, where current salinity levels are now quite low. Because locations likely to experience the largest salinity increases already have a lower-value crop mix, the worst-case losses are less than 1% of total Delta crop revenues. This result also holds for salinity increases from permanent flooding of western islands that serve as a salinity barrier. Our results suggest that salinity increases could have much smaller economic effects on Delta farming than other likely changes in the Delta such as retirement of agricultural lands after large-scale flooding and habitat development. Integrating hydrodynamic, water salinity, and economic models can provide insights into controversial management issues.
机译：海平面上升，大规模洪水以及新的输水运输安排可能会增加加利福尼亚州萨克拉曼多–圣华金三角洲当地农业生产的未来水盐度。作物根区盐度的增加通常会降低作物的产量和收入。盐度影响是非线性的，并随作物选择和其他因素（包括排水和灌溉水的停留时间）而变化。在这里，我们探索在水资源管理，大规模洪水和未来海平面上升的各种组合下三角洲农业生产的变化。水资源管理的替代方案包括：通过三角洲的水出口（当前状况），双重运输（通过三角洲的河流和隧道以及一条6,700？Mm3 yr？1 [或7500 cfs]容量的外围运河或隧道）以及五个有无外围岛屿的西部岛屿的洪水泛滥。出口。我们采用先前流体力学模拟得出的结果，即三角洲各点灌溉水盐度的可能变化。我们将这些灌溉水盐度值连接到三角洲农业的详细农业经济模型中，以估算当地的农作物产量和农场收入损失。先前的水动力建模工作表明，取决于海平面和位置的增加，本世纪海平面上升可能会将盐度从4％增加到130％。双重运输下水管理的变化主要在西部三角洲增加了盐度，而在北部，目前的盐度水平现在很低，北部的盐度增加程度较小。由于盐分增加幅度最大的地区已经具有较低价值的农作物组合，因此最坏情况下的损失不到三角洲农作物总收入的1％。这一结果也适用于盐碱屏障的西部岛屿的永久性泛滥导致盐碱度增加。我们的结果表明，盐度增加对三角洲农业的经济影响可能比三角洲其他可能发生的变化（例如大规模洪水和栖息地开发后退还耕地）对经济的影响要小得多。集成水动力，水盐度和经济模型可以提供有争议的管理问题的见解。

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