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The Econocene and the Delta

机译:始新世与三角洲

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October 2013 San Francisco Estuary & Watershed Science: A Broad Perspective The Econocene and the California Delta Richard B. Norgaard Professor Emeritus Energy and Resources Group University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA 94720 USA norgaard@berkeley.edu Member, Delta Independent Science Board Considering the 50-fold increase and the globalization of economic activity during the 20 th century, we are now in the Econocene: an era where our economy has become the major driver of rapid global change. Managing the California Delta will require policies that facilitate looking ahead and continually working with change rather than looking back and trying to secure a static past. Simply making modest adjustments in the current science–policy interface will be insufficient. Impractical changes—that is, those well beyond existing practice—are called for across the public, private, and non-governmental sectors. Dealing with the variability of nature has been central to human survival, indeed to all species. Being social and smart, people have organized collective strategies to live with nature’s capriciousness. Water management, in particular, has long been central to the cultures and structures of many successful societies around the world. With the rise of modern nations in the 19 th century, being social and smart took the form of progressive, or scientific, governance of land and water. Central to science a century and a half ago was the premise that nature varies in knowable ways around an invariable mean. Those concerned with the big questions of geological history and the evolution of life saw dynamics, but hydrologists and ecologists at the time saw stability. For water science, this led to classifications such as a 100-year flood and 10-year drought, as well as management concepts such as reser- voir operating rules. For fish and wildlife, the concepts of sustained yield and critical thresholds were developed through an understanding of nature having set properties. Similarly, water rights—indeed our concepts of property in general—are rooted in a known nature that varies around a mean. Importantly, this allowed nature to be divid- ed up, owned, and exchanged. Equally important for this essay, our understanding of responsible environmental management and accountability, whether in the private or.
机译:2013年10月旧金山河口和集水区科学:始新世和加利福尼亚三角洲Richard B. Norgaard荣誉能源教授和资源集团加利福尼亚大学伯克利分校,加利福尼亚州94720美国norgaard@berkeley.edu成员,三角洲独立科学委员会的考虑因素在20世纪50倍的增长和经济活动的全球化下,我们现在处在经济世代:我们的经济已成为全球快速变化的主要驱动力的时代。管理加利福尼亚三角洲将需要制定政策,以促进向前看并持续进行变革,而不是回首并试图确保过去的稳定。仅对当前的科学政策界面进行适度的调整是不够的。在公共,私营和非政府部门都要求进行不切实际的变革,即那些远远超出现有做法的变革。处理自然的变异性一直是人类生存乃至所有物种生存的核心。人们善于社交和智慧,已经组织了集体策略来与大自然的反复无常相处。长期以来,水管理一直是世界上许多成功社会的文化和结构的核心。随着19世纪现代国家的崛起,社会化和智慧化表现为对土地和水的逐步治理或科学治理。一个半世纪以前,科学的中心是前提,即自然以恒定的均值以已知的方式变化。那些关心地质历史和生命进化的重大问题的人看到了动态,但当时的水文学家和生态学家却看到了稳定性。对于水科学,这导致了诸如100年洪水和10年干旱的分类,以及诸如储油库运行规则之类的管理概念。对于鱼类和野生动植物,通过了解具有设定属性的自然界,发展了可持续产量和临界阈值的概念。同样,水权(实际上是我们一般的财产概念)植根于已知的性质,其均值在平均值之间变化。重要的是,这允许对自然进行划分,拥有和交换。同样重要的是,我们对负责任的环境管理和问责制(无论是私下还是私下)的理解。

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