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首页> 外文期刊>Science Advances >Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C
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Northern cod species face spawning habitat losses if global warming exceeds 1.5°C

机译：如果全球变暖超过1.5°C，北部鳕鱼将面临产卵栖息地丧失

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Rapid climate change in the Northeast Atlantic and Arctic poses a threat to some of the world’s largest fish populations. Impacts of warming and acidification may become accessible through mechanism-based risk assessments and projections of future habitat suitability. We show that ocean acidification causes a narrowing of embryonic thermal ranges, which identifies the suitability of spawning habitats as a critical life-history bottleneck for two abundant cod species. Embryonic tolerance ranges linked to climate simulations reveal that ever-increasing CO2 emissions [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5] will deteriorate suitability of present spawning habitat for both Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) and Polar cod (Boreogadus saida) by 2100. Moderate warming (RCP4.5) may avert dangerous climate impacts on Atlantic cod but still leaves few spawning areas for the more vulnerable Polar cod, which also loses the benefits of an ice-covered ocean. Emissions following RCP2.6, however, support largely unchanged habitat suitability for both species, suggesting that risks are minimized if warming is held “below 2°C, if not 1.5°C,” as pledged by the Paris Agreement.
机译：东北大西洋和北极地区的快速气候变化对世界上最大的鱼类种群构成了威胁。通过基于机制的风险评估和对未来生境适应性的预测，可以获取变暖和酸化的影响。我们表明，海洋酸化会导致胚胎热能范围的缩小，从而确定产卵栖息地是否适合作为两个丰富的鳕鱼物种的重要生活史瓶颈。与气候模拟相关的胚胎耐受范围显示，到2100年，不断增加的CO2排放量[代表性浓度途径（RCP）8.5]会降低目前大西洋鳕（Gadus morhua）和极地鳕（Boreogadus saida）产卵栖息地的适宜性。 （RCP4.5）可能避免了对大西洋鳕鱼的危险气候影响，但仍为极易受害的极地鳕鱼留下了产卵区，这也失去了冰雪覆盖的海洋的好处。然而，RCP2.6之后的排放量在很大程度上支持了这两种物种的生境适应性，这表明如果将气候变暖保持在“巴黎协定”所承诺的“低于2°C（如果不是1.5°C）以下”的情况下，风险将降至最低。

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