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首页> 外文期刊>ournal of the Meteorological Society of Japan >Imminent Nowcasting for Severe Rainfall Using Vertically Integrated Liquid Water Content Derived from X-Band Polarimetric Radar
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Imminent Nowcasting for Severe Rainfall Using Vertically Integrated Liquid Water Content Derived from X-Band Polarimetric Radar

机译：利用X波段极化雷达得出的垂直积分液态水含量即将进行的暴雨临近预报

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?This paper reports the development of a very-short-range nowcast system, VIL Nowcast, which aims to provide precise forecasts of imminent rainfall, and in particular, heavy and localized events. The system is based on the vertically integrated liquid water content (VIL), which is estimated from three-dimensional radar observations as well as the 1-minute-resolution rainfall map obtained from the X-band polarimetric (multi-parameter) RAdar Information Network (XRAIN), to predict rainfall amounts over 10 minutes periods that extend to 10-60 minutes into the future. The spatial resolution of VIL Nowcast was 500 m, and nowcasts were produced at a temporal resolution of 5 minutes. Three precipitation events, of which two were isolated storms and one was a synoptic storm, were used as case studies to verify the model. The performance of VIL Nowcast was evaluated against the XRAIN radar rainfall data and an existing rainfall-rate nowcast system using the same advection scheme. The scope of the evaluation was limited mainly to the first prediction for 10 minutes ahead. It was found that VIL Nowcast showed a small, statistically significant improvement over the entire precipitation event, although its skill decreased at longer lead times and at higher thresholds. The key findings of this study are: (1) VIL Nowcast appears capable of generating skillful forecasts at short lead times, even for very localized heavy rainfall; (2) VIL Nowcast can reduce the time lag in the rainfall-rate nowcast system at initiation and peak precipitation; and (3) this system may improve the accuracy of heavy rainfall alerts provided for public activities and emergency alarms.
机译：本文报道了一种非常短距离的临近预报系统VIL Nowcast的开发，该系统旨在提供即将到来的降雨，尤其是局部和局部大雨的精确预报。该系统基于垂直积分的液态水含量（VIL），它是根据三维雷达观测以及从X波段极化（多参数）雷达雷达信息网络获得的1分钟分辨率降雨图估算的（XRAIN），以预测未来10分钟内的降雨量，该范围将延伸到未来10-60分钟。 VIL临近预报的空间分辨率为500 m，并且临近预报的时间分辨率为5分钟。作为案例研究，使用了三个降水事件，其中两个是孤立的风暴，一个是天气风暴，以验证该模型。根据XRAIN雷达降雨数据和使用相同平流方案的现有降雨率临近预报系统，对VIL临近预报的性能进行了评估。评价范围主要限于未来10分钟的首次预测。研究发现，VIL Nowcast在整个降水事件中显示出很小的，统计学上显着的改善，尽管其技能在较长的交货时间和较高的阈值下会降低。这项研究的主要发现是：（1）VIL Nowcast似乎能够在很短的交货时间内生成熟练的预报，即使对于局部降雨很大的地区也是如此; （2）VIL临近预报可以减少降雨率临近预报系统在开始和峰值降水时的时滞; （3）该系统可以提高为公共活动和紧急警报提供的强降雨警报的准确性。

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