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Detection of flood influence criteria in ungauged basins on a combined Delphi-AHP approach

机译：基于组合Delphi-AHP方法的非灌水盆地洪水影响判据

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The prediction of areas susceptible to floods is essential for the protection of the population living in vulnerable conditions. It is only possible when the main contributing factors are pointed out. It is very challenging for hydrologists to run models when the input data are not representative. Alternative methods, such as the multicriteria decision analysis, represent a good solution for the simulation of future scenarios. However, the criteria selection affects the accuracy of the further modelling process. The purpose of the current study was to select and attribute scores to all the feasible criteria that contribute to flood susceptibility in the coastal plains of the Juqueriquere river basin, Brazil. First, the Delphi method was employed in the expert-based survey. Then, the root square judgement scale was adapted to an extended Analytic Hierarchy Process approach for the final allocation of priority values. Even though the initially ranked scores were within a limited range, the proposed methodology could adequately redistribute these scores in the final scale from 1 to 10. The consistency and sensitivity analyses revealed that the findings were coherent, providing the weight vector of the achievable criteria that affect the flood likelihood in the study area.
机译：对易受洪水影响地区的预测对于保护生活在脆弱条件下的人们至关重要。只有指出了主要的影响因素，才有可能。当输入数据不具有代表性时，水文学家要运行模型非常具有挑战性。诸如多准则决策分析之类的替代方法是模拟未来方案的良好解决方案。但是，标准选择会影响进一步建模过程的准确性。本研究的目的是选择分数并将其归因于有助于巴西Juqueriquere流域沿海平原洪水敏感性的所有可行标准。首先，在基于专家的调查中采用了Delphi方法。然后，将平方根判断量表调整为扩展的层次分析法，以最终分配优先级值。即使最初排名的分数在有限的范围内，所提出的方法也可以将这些分数以1到10的最终比例适当地重新分配。影响研究区域的洪水可能性。

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