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Earnings management to achieve positive earnings surprises in case of medium size companies listed in Poland

机译:在波兰上市的中型公司的情况下,盈余管理可实现正数的盈余

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Earnings management in Polish listed companies was the subject of only several studies, mainly theoretical, but none of them is related to earnings management to meet analysts’ expectations. The aim of the paper is to detect any signals of earnings management to achieve zero or small positive earnings surprises. The sample comprises 609 observations from years 2012-2014 related to medium size companies listed at Warsaw Stock Exchange. Distribution of scaled annual earnings surprise (difference between realized and forecasted earnings scaled by beginning total assets) is analyzed. It contains unusually high frequency of small positive surprises. If the module of earnings surprise is small it is more probable that the real value was higher than the forecast - meeting or beating the forecast, so small positive earnings surprises are more probable than negative. If the module of earnings surprise is high it is more probable that the forecast of income was higher than the real value - neither meeting nor beating the forecast. Results are not sensitive to the choice of earnings surprise metric.
机译:波兰上市公司的盈余管理仅是几项研究的主题,主要是理论研究,但它们均与盈余管理无关,无法满足分析师的预期。本文的目的是检测任何盈余管理信号,以实现零或零的正盈余惊喜。该样本包括2012年至2014年间与华沙证券交易所上市的中型公司有关的609项观察结果。分析了按比例分配的年度收入意外数的分布(按期初总资产按比例划分的已实现和预测收入之间的差异)。它包含异常频繁的小积极惊喜。如果收益意外的模块很小,则实际价值可能高于预测-达到或超过预期,因此,较小的正收益意外比负收益更可能。如果收入意外的模块很高,则收入的预测可能会高于实际价值,而不是达到或超过预测。结果对收入意外指标的选择不敏感。

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