...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Social Sciences >Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier?
【24h】

Performance of Survey Forecasts by Professional Analysts: Did the European Debt Crisis Make it Harder or Perhaps Even Easier?

机译：专业分析师进行的调查预测的表现：欧洲债务危机使它变得更难或更容易了吗？

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

As the future movements of financial time series like the European Central Bank’s benchmark rate are exposed to uncertainty, financial market participants regularly have to rely on professional analysts’ forecasts. Not surprisingly—and for decades already—the quality of survey forecasts has been evaluated, with heterogeneous results. In addition, forecasters’ performance can change through the course of time. This may happen not only due to wrong or inadequate underlying models. Especially in times of financial turmoil or monetary crisis—like the European debt crisis—the interest rate moves made by central bankers may become even harder to predict (at least the direct reaction to the crisis). Because of this, we evaluate the performance of survey forecasts for the three months rate in the Euro zone performed by financial professionals and test for structural breaks to evidence for crisis related changes and the corresponding forecast errors.
机译：由于诸如欧洲央行基准利率之类的金融时间序列的未来走势面临不确定性，因此金融市场参与者经常必须依赖专业分析师的预测。毫不奇怪，而且几十年来，已经对调查预测的质量进行了评估，得出的结果也不尽相同。此外，预测员的表现会随着时间的推移而变化。这不仅可能是由于错误或不适当的基础模型而发生的。特别是在金融动荡或货币危机之时，例如欧洲债务危机，央行行长的利率走势可能变得更加难以预测（至少是对危机的直接反应）。因此，我们评估了金融专业人员对欧元区三个月利率的调查预测的表现，并测试结构性断裂，以证明与危机相关的变化和相应的预测误差。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号