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首页> 外文期刊>Open Journal of Modern Hydrology >Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility in Cau River Basin Using a Physical-Based Model under Impact of Climate Change
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Evaluation of Landslide Susceptibility in Cau River Basin Using a Physical-Based Model under Impact of Climate Change

机译：基于物理模型的气候变化影响下的考河流域滑坡敏感性评价

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This paper evaluated the probability of landslide susceptibilities through the applica-tion of the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Region Slope-Stability model in Cau river basin (Vietnam) using the scenarios-based approach under the influence of the warming climate. The tested cases were developed based on various options including rainfall amount and distribution, soil depth determination, and land-cover conditions. Input data for extreme rain events included historical rainstorm in 2013, the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) with the durations of 24 hours and 48 hours. The results illustrated the reduction of slope stability when the land cover changed from land-use data in 2007 (Ha12) to land-use data in 2015 (Ha22). When the whole region was assumed to be replaced by soil (Ha02), the factor of safety (Fs) decreased to lower magnitude when compared to Fs value regarding to changes in land cover condition (Ha12 & Ha22) and changes in soil-depth (Ha33). The model simulations demonstrated the agreement with the slope-failure hazard association with the destabilizing factor such as slope-cutting activities at historical landslide events. Under the same land-cover and soil depth condition, the average value of factor of safety regarding to the historical rainstorm in 2013 (Ha32) declined by 0.069 and 0.189 when compared to Fs of the 24-hour PMP with the storm distribution type 3 (1332) and Fs of the 48-hour PMP with the storm distribution type 3 (2332), respectively. The results reveal that in a warming climate, changes in extreme precipitation in terms of rain-total, rain-duration, and rain-distribution would result in the expansion of slope instability in the hilly region. This application is considered as a prevailing method for landslide susceptibility analysis and would provide important information for authorities in developing adequate land-management in the river basin.
机译：本文通过基于情景的方法，在气候变暖的影响下，运用瞬态降雨入渗和基于网格的区域坡稳定模型，在考河河流域（越南）中评估了滑坡敏感性。测试案例是根据各种选项开发的，包括降雨量的数量和分布，土壤深度的确定以及土地覆盖的条件。极端降雨事件的输入数据包括2013年的历史暴雨，持续24小时和48小时的可能的最大降水量（PMP）。结果表明，当土地覆盖率从2007年（Ha12）的土地利用数据变为2015年（Ha22）的土地利用数据时，边坡稳定性降低。当假定整个区域都被土壤（Ha02）替代时，与Fs值相比，关于土地覆盖条件的变化（Ha12和Ha22）和土壤深度的变化（Ha Ha33）。模型模拟表明，与历史滑坡事件中的边坡开挖活动等失稳因素与边坡破坏危险关联具有一致性。在相同的土地覆被和土壤深度条件下，与风暴分布类型为3（24）的24小时PMP的Fs相比，2013年历史暴雨的安全系数平均值（Ha32）分别下降了0.069和0.189。风暴分布类型3（2332）的48小时PMP的Fs（1332）和Fs。结果表明，在气候变暖的情况下，极端降雨在降雨总量，降雨持续时间和降雨分布方面的变化将导致丘陵地区边坡失稳扩大。该应用程序被认为是滑坡敏感性分析的主要方法，将为有关部门在流域开发适当的土地管理方法提供重要信息。

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