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首页> 外文期刊>SOLA: Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere >Predictability during the Onset Period of a Euro-Atlantic Blocking Event during 12-21 December 2007
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Predictability during the Onset Period of a Euro-Atlantic Blocking Event during 12-21 December 2007

机译：2007年12月12日至21日发生的欧洲大西洋封锁事件爆发期间的可预测性

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References(13) Cited-By(2) Supplementary materials(1) The predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions during the onset period of a prominent atmospheric blocking event occurring over the Euro-Atlantic sector during 12-21 December 2007 is examined using Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA25)/JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) dataset and one-week ensemble forecast dataset provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA). First, it is found that the predictability in the blocking region is temporarily reduced during the onset period of the blocking event. Second, a simple sensitivity analysis introduced by Enomoto et al. (2007) indicates that low-frequency variations associated with a quasi-stationary Rossby wave train significantly affect the prediction of the blocking onset in comparison with high-frequency variations. This is also confirmed by the time evolution of the spread among ensemble members based on 300-hPa height field. Finally, the predicted vorticity flux divergence by the low-frequency variations, rather than the high-frequency variations, is also found to significantly correlate with the predicted blocking strength, which stresses the importance of the low-frequency variations for the prediction of the onset of this blocking event.
机译：参考文献（13）引用依据（2）补充材料（1）使用日语对2007年12月12日至21日发生在欧洲大西洋地区的重大大气阻塞事件发作期间大规模大气运动的可预测性进行了研究。由日本气象厅（JMA）提供的25年再分析（JRA25）/ JMA气候数据同化系统（JCDAS）数据集和为期一周的集合预报数据集。首先，发现在阻塞事件的开始期间，阻塞区域的可预测性暂时降低。第二，由Enomoto等人介绍的简单灵敏度分析。 （2007年）表明，与高频平稳变化相比，与准平稳Rossby波列相关的低频变化会显着影响阻塞开始的预测。基于300hPa高度场的合奏成员之间传播的时间演变也证实了这一点。最后，还发现由低频变化而不是由高频变化引起的预测涡流通量与预测的阻塞强度显着相关，这强调了低频变化对于预测发作的重要性。阻止事件。

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