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首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Simulation of Sediment Yield in a Semi-Arid River Basin under Changing Land Use: An Integrated Approach of Hydrologic Modelling and Principal Component Analysis
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Simulation of Sediment Yield in a Semi-Arid River Basin under Changing Land Use: An Integrated Approach of Hydrologic Modelling and Principal Component Analysis

机译：土地利用变化下半干旱河流域泥沙淤积模拟：水文模拟与主成分分析的综合方法

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摘要

Intensified human activities over the past decades have culminated in the prevalence of dire environmental consequences of sediment yield resulting mainly from land use changes. Understanding the role that land use changes play in the dynamics of sediment yield would greatly enhance decision-making processes related to land use and water resources management. In this study, we investigated the impacts of land use and cover changes on sediment yield dynamics through an integrated approach of hydrologic modelling and principal component analysis (PCA). A three-phase land use scenario (2000, 2007 and 2013) employing the “fix-changing” method was used to simulate the sediment yield of the Olifants Basin. Contributions in the changes in individual land uses to sediment yield were assessed using the component and pattern matrixes of PCA. Our results indicate that sediment yield dynamics in the study area is significantly attributed to the changes in agriculture, urban and forested lands. Changes in agriculture and urban lands were directly proportional to sediment yield dynamics of the Olifants Basin. On the contrary, forested areas had a negative relationship with sediment yield indicating less sediment yield from these areas. The output of this research work provides a simplistic approach of evaluating the impacts of land use changes on sediment yield. The tools and methods used are relevant for policy directions on land and water resources planning and management.
机译：在过去的几十年中，人类活动的加剧最终导致了主要由于土地用途变化而导致泥沙产量对环境造成的可怕后果。了解土地利用变化在沉积物产量动态中的作用，将大大增强与土地利用和水资源管理有关的决策过程。在这项研究中，我们通过水文模型和主成分分析（PCA）的综合方法，调查了土地利用和覆盖变化对沉积物产量动态的影响。采用“固定改变”方法的三个阶段的土地利用情景（2000年，2007年和2013年）模拟了奥利富特盆地的沉积物产量。使用PCA的成分和模式矩阵评估了各个土地用途的变化对沉积物产量的贡献。我们的结果表明，研究区的沉积物产量动态很大程度上归因于农业，城市和林地的变化。农业和城市土地的变化与Olifants盆地的沉积物产量动态成正比。相反，林区与泥沙产量负相关，表明这些地区的泥沙产量较少。这项研究工作的成果提供了一种简单的方法来评估土地利用变化对沉积物产量的影响。所使用的工具和方法与土地和水资源规划和管理的政策方向有关。

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