...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Sustainability >Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050
【24h】

Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning Model: A Case Study of China’s Power Sector Planning into 2050

机译：动态整合资源战略规划模型：以中国2050年之前的电力行业规划为例

获取原文
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

This paper proposes a Dynamic Integrated Resource Strategic Planning (DIRSP) model based on a semi-Markov decision-making process. Considering the policy transfer probability matrix, we discuss the influence of different policy portfolios and input intensity on the timing and scale of low-carbon transition during the power planning process. In addition, we discuss various planning scenarios from a socio-technical system transition perspective. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning in China during 2015–2050 under different policies, including a typical reproduction pathway with unchanged policy that maintains the original coal-dominated technology pathway, a de-alignment/re-alignment pathway where renewable energy power technologies develop from niches to mainstream while the planning time for peak coal power moves ahead in 10–20 years due to subsidies to renewable and carbon tax policy, and the substitution and reconfiguration pathways in which renewable energy technologies compete with coal power in parallel, in which coal power will peak by 2020 while wind power and solar power will realize large-scale development by 2020 and 2030, respectively. Case study on power planning in China indicates that the methodology proposed in our study can enhance our understanding on the low-carbon transition process and the interaction between energy policy and transition pathway.
机译：本文提出了一种基于半马尔可夫决策过程的动态综合资源战略计划（DIRSP）模型。考虑政策转移概率矩阵，我们讨论了不同的政策组合和投入强度对电力规划过程中低碳过渡时间和规模的影响。此外，我们从社会技术系统转换的角度讨论了各种计划方案。情景汇编旨在比较不同政策下中国在2015-2050年间的电力规划路径，包括典型的再生路径和未改变的政策，以维持原始的以煤炭为主导的技术路径，以及走偏路线/重新走线路线，其中可再生能源电力技术已从利基发展到主流，同时由于可再生能源和碳税政策的补贴以及可再生能源技术与煤电并行竞争的替代和重组途径，煤炭峰值电的规划时间在10-20年内向前推进，其中煤电将在2020年达到顶峰，而风电和太阳能将分别在2020年和2030年实现大规模发展。以中国的电力规划为例，研究提出的方法可以增进我们对低碳转型过程以及能源政策与转型路径之间相互作用的理解。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号